Trader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 has coalesced around the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter range at 54.4% implied probability, closely followed by the 0.6–0.8% bucket at 40.9%, reflecting private-sector forecasts averaging 0.4–0.5% growth for the January–March period. Recent Reuters and think-tank polls cite resilient exports, modest gains in private consumption, and steady capital expenditure as key supports, with the full effects of Middle East tensions and prior tariff pressures expected to surface only in Q2. The Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 anchors near-term positioning, while lower-probability contraction outcomes below 7% indicate limited downside priced in ahead of the data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.3〜0.5％ 54.9%
0.9～1.1％ 30.6%
-0.3～-0.1％ 6.0%
0.0～0.2％ 3.0%
新規
新規
2026/05/19
-0.4％以下
1%
-0.3～-0.1％
6%
0.0～0.2％
3%
0.3〜0.5％
55%
0.6〜0.8%
43%
0.9～1.1％
31%
1.2％以上
1%
0.3〜0.5％ 54.9%
0.9～1.1％ 30.6%
-0.3～-0.1％ 6.0%
0.0～0.2％ 3.0%
新規
新規
2026/05/19
-0.4％以下
$1,317 Vol.
1%
-0.3～-0.1％
$1,528 Vol.
6%
0.0～0.2％
$1,384 Vol.
3%
0.3〜0.5％
$911 Vol.
55%
0.6〜0.8%
$586 Vol.
43%
0.9～1.1％
$792 Vol.
31%
1.2％以上
$3,375 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 has coalesced around the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter range at 54.4% implied probability, closely followed by the 0.6–0.8% bucket at 40.9%, reflecting private-sector forecasts averaging 0.4–0.5% growth for the January–March period. Recent Reuters and think-tank polls cite resilient exports, modest gains in private consumption, and steady capital expenditure as key supports, with the full effects of Middle East tensions and prior tariff pressures expected to surface only in Q2. The Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 anchors near-term positioning, while lower-probability contraction outcomes below 7% indicate limited downside priced in ahead of the data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
音量
$9,894終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 has coalesced around the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter range at 54.4% implied probability, closely followed by the 0.6–0.8% bucket at 40.9%, reflecting private-sector forecasts averaging 0.4–0.5% growth for the January–March period. Recent Reuters and think-tank polls cite resilient exports, modest gains in private consumption, and steady capital expenditure as key supports, with the full effects of Middle East tensions and prior tariff pressures expected to surface only in Q2. The Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 anchors near-term positioning, while lower-probability contraction outcomes below 7% indicate limited downside priced in ahead of the data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
音量
$9,894終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 has coalesced around the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter range at 54.4% implied probability, closely followed by the 0.6–0.8% bucket at 40.9%, reflecting private-sector forecasts averaging 0.4–0.5% growth for the January–March period. Recent Reuters and think-tank polls cite resilient exports, modest gains in private consumption, and steady capital expenditure as key supports, with the full effects of Middle East tensions and prior tariff pressures expected to surface only in Q2. The Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 anchors near-term positioning, while lower-probability contraction outcomes below 7% indicate limited downside priced in ahead of the data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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