**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada. Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジャスティン・アギアは2027年以前に性的暴行で有罪判決を受けましたか？
ジャスティン・アギアは2027年以前に性的暴行で有罪判決を受けましたか？
はい
31% 確率
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
31% 確率
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada.
Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
音量
$52,562終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada.
Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$52,562終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada. Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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