As president of South Korea since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on existing charges except for insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely postponed trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and corruption cases, while the ruling Democratic Party advances a special-counsel bill that could formally drop or review those proceedings. Opposition impeachment efforts and public criticism continue but lack the legislative support needed to override immunity protections. With no new indictments or developments breaching these safeguards in recent months, traders assign an 89.3 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$319,328 Vol.
$319,328 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$319,328 Vol.
$319,328 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As president of South Korea since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on existing charges except for insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely postponed trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and corruption cases, while the ruling Democratic Party advances a special-counsel bill that could formally drop or review those proceedings. Opposition impeachment efforts and public criticism continue but lack the legislative support needed to override immunity protections. With no new indictments or developments breaching these safeguards in recent months, traders assign an 89.3 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
音量
$319,328終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As president of South Korea since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on existing charges except for insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely postponed trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and corruption cases, while the ruling Democratic Party advances a special-counsel bill that could formally drop or review those proceedings. Opposition impeachment efforts and public criticism continue but lack the legislative support needed to override immunity protections. With no new indictments or developments breaching these safeguards in recent months, traders assign an 89.3 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$319,328終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As president of South Korea since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on existing charges except for insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely postponed trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and corruption cases, while the ruling Democratic Party advances a special-counsel bill that could formally drop or review those proceedings. Opposition impeachment efforts and public criticism continue but lack the legislative support needed to override immunity protections. With no new indictments or developments breaching these safeguards in recent months, traders assign an 89.3 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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