**Lee Jae-myung, elected president in South Korea’s June 2025 snap election, benefits from constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecutions except for insurrection or treason.** Multiple ongoing cases—covering election-law violations, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure in Seongnam, and related charges—were suspended upon his inauguration. His Democratic Party majority has advanced special-counsel legislation aimed at resolving or dismissing these matters, while courts have postponed further proceedings. No arrest warrants have been executed since he took office, and recent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new prosecutorial moves capable of overriding immunity before the 2027 horizon. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the structural protection of the presidency and the absence of qualifying offenses or legislative changes that would alter it.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$529,276 Vol.
$529,276 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$529,276 Vol.
$529,276 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Lee Jae-myung, elected president in South Korea’s June 2025 snap election, benefits from constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecutions except for insurrection or treason.** Multiple ongoing cases—covering election-law violations, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure in Seongnam, and related charges—were suspended upon his inauguration. His Democratic Party majority has advanced special-counsel legislation aimed at resolving or dismissing these matters, while courts have postponed further proceedings. No arrest warrants have been executed since he took office, and recent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new prosecutorial moves capable of overriding immunity before the 2027 horizon. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the structural protection of the presidency and the absence of qualifying offenses or legislative changes that would alter it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
音量
$529,276終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Lee Jae-myung, elected president in South Korea’s June 2025 snap election, benefits from constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecutions except for insurrection or treason.** Multiple ongoing cases—covering election-law violations, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure in Seongnam, and related charges—were suspended upon his inauguration. His Democratic Party majority has advanced special-counsel legislation aimed at resolving or dismissing these matters, while courts have postponed further proceedings. No arrest warrants have been executed since he took office, and recent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new prosecutorial moves capable of overriding immunity before the 2027 horizon. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the structural protection of the presidency and the absence of qualifying offenses or legislative changes that would alter it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$529,276終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Lee Jae-myung, elected president in South Korea’s June 2025 snap election, benefits from constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecutions except for insurrection or treason.** Multiple ongoing cases—covering election-law violations, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure in Seongnam, and related charges—were suspended upon his inauguration. His Democratic Party majority has advanced special-counsel legislation aimed at resolving or dismissing these matters, while courts have postponed further proceedings. No arrest warrants have been executed since he took office, and recent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new prosecutorial moves capable of overriding immunity before the 2027 horizon. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the structural protection of the presidency and the absence of qualifying offenses or legislative changes that would alter it.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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