**As South Korea’s sitting president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends most criminal proceedings except in cases of insurrection or treason.** Courts have indefinitely postponed all five pre-existing trials—including election-law violations and corruption allegations tied to his earlier roles as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor—following his election victory. No new indictments or legislative efforts to lift these safeguards have advanced as of mid-2026. An opposition-backed impeachment petition collected over 100,000 signatures in June 2026, yet the ruling party’s 161-seat majority in the 300-seat National Assembly makes passage improbable without broader defections. This institutional framework, combined with the absence of recent prosecutorial or political moves targeting his arrest, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 92.6% “No” probability. Resolution to “Yes” would require either impeachment, a successful constitutional challenge, or extraordinary circumstances before December 31, 2026.