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icon for イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？
政治·韓国

イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？

icon for イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？
政治·韓国

イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？

12月 31

12月 31

はい

6% 確率
Polymarket

$19,133 Vol.

はい

6% 確率
Polymarket

$19,133 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through 2026, as the Democratic Party's legislative supermajority and recent electoral gains create high structural barriers.** The National Assembly holds sole authority to initiate impeachment under the constitution, and the ruling party's dominance—secured in the 2024 general election and reinforced by wins in 12 of 16 races during the June 2026 local elections—makes the required two-thirds vote improbable absent major defections. A June 2026 opposition petition gathered over 100,000 signatures but stalled without referral, reflecting limited cross-party momentum. Lee's term runs through 2030 with no intervening elections or automatic triggers, while his post-inauguration emphasis on pragmatic governance and national unity has sustained sufficient support among key voting blocs. Historical precedent from the Yoon Suk-yeol case shows impeachment requires sustained public and legislative consensus, conditions not currently evident. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.8% largely due to these institutional and political realities rather than any single event.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
音量
$19,133
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through 2026, as the Democratic Party's legislative supermajority and recent electoral gains create high structural barriers.** The National Assembly holds sole authority to initiate impeachment under the constitution, and the ruling party's dominance—secured in the 2024 general election and reinforced by wins in 12 of 16 races during the June 2026 local elections—makes the required two-thirds vote improbable absent major defections. A June 2026 opposition petition gathered over 100,000 signatures but stalled without referral, reflecting limited cross-party momentum. Lee's term runs through 2030 with no intervening elections or automatic triggers, while his post-inauguration emphasis on pragmatic governance and national unity has sustained sufficient support among key voting blocs. Historical precedent from the Yoon Suk-yeol case shows impeachment requires sustained public and legislative consensus, conditions not currently evident. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.8% largely due to these institutional and political realities rather than any single event.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
音量
$19,133
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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よくある質問

「イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イ・ジェミョンは2027年までに弾劾されるか？」で6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、6¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に6%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？」は$19.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？」の現在のリーダーは「イ・ジェミョンは2027年までに弾劾されるか？」でわずか6%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イ・ジェミョンは2027年以前に弾劾されましたか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。