As South Korea’s president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung is shielded by constitutional immunity under Article 84, which bars criminal prosecution or arrest during his term except in cases of insurrection or treason. This protection has prompted courts to suspend all five prior trials on charges including Daejang-dong land development graft and alleged unauthorized remittances to North Korea. No new indictments have been issued, and opposition impeachment petitions lack the legislative support needed to strip immunity before 2027. Traders’ 89.2 percent implied probability for no arrest therefore reflects the structural barrier of presidential protection, combined with Lee’s ongoing diplomatic engagements and the absence of qualifying events that could trigger removal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$318,904 Vol.
$318,904 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$318,904 Vol.
$318,904 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea’s president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung is shielded by constitutional immunity under Article 84, which bars criminal prosecution or arrest during his term except in cases of insurrection or treason. This protection has prompted courts to suspend all five prior trials on charges including Daejang-dong land development graft and alleged unauthorized remittances to North Korea. No new indictments have been issued, and opposition impeachment petitions lack the legislative support needed to strip immunity before 2027. Traders’ 89.2 percent implied probability for no arrest therefore reflects the structural barrier of presidential protection, combined with Lee’s ongoing diplomatic engagements and the absence of qualifying events that could trigger removal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
音量
$318,904終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea’s president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung is shielded by constitutional immunity under Article 84, which bars criminal prosecution or arrest during his term except in cases of insurrection or treason. This protection has prompted courts to suspend all five prior trials on charges including Daejang-dong land development graft and alleged unauthorized remittances to North Korea. No new indictments have been issued, and opposition impeachment petitions lack the legislative support needed to strip immunity before 2027. Traders’ 89.2 percent implied probability for no arrest therefore reflects the structural barrier of presidential protection, combined with Lee’s ongoing diplomatic engagements and the absence of qualifying events that could trigger removal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$318,904終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As South Korea’s president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung is shielded by constitutional immunity under Article 84, which bars criminal prosecution or arrest during his term except in cases of insurrection or treason. This protection has prompted courts to suspend all five prior trials on charges including Daejang-dong land development graft and alleged unauthorized remittances to North Korea. No new indictments have been issued, and opposition impeachment petitions lack the legislative support needed to strip immunity before 2027. Traders’ 89.2 percent implied probability for no arrest therefore reflects the structural barrier of presidential protection, combined with Lee’s ongoing diplomatic engagements and the absence of qualifying events that could trigger removal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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