Current forecast models from NOAA indicate modest uncertainty in Miami's overnight low on August 21, with ensemble spreads centered near 80–83°F driven by variable cloud cover, Atlantic moisture, and weak steering flow limiting radiative cooling. These conditions produce the market's tight clustering around 80–81°F and 82–83°F outcomes, as traders weigh diurnal temperature ranges against typical late-summer humidity that caps drops below 78°F. Minor model disagreements on boundary-layer mixing and any weak tropical wave influence keep lower bins below 10% implied probability. Next NWS forecast updates and real-time observations will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.