Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月22日のパリの最低気温は？
8月22日のパリの最低気温は？
12°C 34%
11℃ 28%
13°C 15%
10℃ 10%
新規
新規
2026/08/22
9°C以下
5%
10℃
10%
11℃
28%
12°C
34%
13°C
15%
14°C
10%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
<1%
19℃以上
<1%
12°C 34%
11℃ 28%
13°C 15%
10℃ 10%
新規
新規
2026/08/22
9°C以下
$0 Vol.
5%
10℃
$0 Vol.
10%
11℃
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$0 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
10%
15°C
$245 Vol.
6%
16°C
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C
$5 Vol.
4%
18°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
19℃以上
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
音量
$260終了日
2026/08/22マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$260終了日
2026/08/22マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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