Recent atmospheric conditions over Tokyo, including light southerly winds and partial cloud cover overnight into May 17, limited radiative cooling and kept minimum temperatures from falling sharply below seasonal norms. Official Japan Meteorological Agency stations recorded a low near 18 °C amid stable high pressure, aligning with the market-implied odds that currently favor that threshold at 55.5 % while clustering tightly between 15 °C and 21 °C. Spring climatology for mid-May shows typical overnight lows of 14–16 °C, yet urban heat-island effects and modest warm-air advection appear to have raised the floor this year. Updated surface observations and model verification expected in the coming days will determine final resolution among these closely matched outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の東京の最低気温は?
18℃ 99.7%
14°C以下 3.6%
23℃ 1.0%
15℃ <1%
$15,798 Vol.
$15,798 Vol.
14°C以下
4%
15℃
1%
16°C
-
17℃
<1%
18℃
100%
19°C
1%
20℃
<1%
21℃
<1%
22℃
1%
23℃
1%
24℃以上
<1%
18℃ 99.7%
14°C以下 3.6%
23℃ 1.0%
15℃ <1%
$15,798 Vol.
$15,798 Vol.
14°C以下
4%
15℃
1%
16°C
-
17℃
<1%
18℃
100%
19°C
1%
20℃
<1%
21℃
<1%
22℃
1%
23℃
1%
24℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent atmospheric conditions over Tokyo, including light southerly winds and partial cloud cover overnight into May 17, limited radiative cooling and kept minimum temperatures from falling sharply below seasonal norms. Official Japan Meteorological Agency stations recorded a low near 18 °C amid stable high pressure, aligning with the market-implied odds that currently favor that threshold at 55.5 % while clustering tightly between 15 °C and 21 °C. Spring climatology for mid-May shows typical overnight lows of 14–16 °C, yet urban heat-island effects and modest warm-air advection appear to have raised the floor this year. Updated surface observations and model verification expected in the coming days will determine final resolution among these closely matched outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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