Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Shanghai’s May 18 maximum temperature most likely settling between 26°C and 28°C under moderate southeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that will limit afternoon solar heating. This narrow consensus explains the closely matched market-implied odds for 26°C and 27°C, with any clearer skies or lighter winds able to nudge readings toward 28°C while persistent marine influence keeps values from exceeding that range. Mid-May climatology for the region typically produces daily highs near 25–27°C, so the current atmospheric setup aligns closely with historical norms and leaves limited room for outliers. Fresh model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will sharpen these projections before the market resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日の上海の最高気温は?
27°C 32%
26°C 28%
28°C 20%
29°C 10%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C
32%
28°C
20%
29°C
10%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 32%
26°C 28%
28°C 20%
29°C 10%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C
32%
28°C
20%
29°C
10%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Shanghai’s May 18 maximum temperature most likely settling between 26°C and 28°C under moderate southeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that will limit afternoon solar heating. This narrow consensus explains the closely matched market-implied odds for 26°C and 27°C, with any clearer skies or lighter winds able to nudge readings toward 28°C while persistent marine influence keeps values from exceeding that range. Mid-May climatology for the region typically produces daily highs near 25–27°C, so the current atmospheric setup aligns closely with historical norms and leaves limited room for outliers. Fresh model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will sharpen these projections before the market resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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