**Recent heavy rainfall and associated cloud cover from September 20–21 have introduced cooler, more stable air masses over Tokyo, positioning overnight lows for September 22 primarily in the 21–24°C range according to current forecast consensus.** Model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles shows lingering moisture and variable winds (northwesterly shifting easterly) limiting radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy to showery conditions. This aligns with historical late-September baselines around 19°C but reflects the temporary suppression from recent precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm in places. Trader-implied probabilities heavily favor 23–24°C (combined ~76.5%), reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes below 22°C or warmer readings above 25°C, which would require clearer skies or different steering patterns not currently indicated. Updated JMA and global model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these values ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月22日の東京の最低気温は？
9月22日の東京の最低気温は？
24℃ 43%
23℃ 33%
22℃ 17%
21℃ 9%
新規
新規
2026/09/22
18℃以下
1%
19℃
1%
20°C
3%
21℃
9%
22℃
16%
23℃
33%
24℃
43%
25℃
5%
26℃
2%
27℃
2%
28℃以上
1%
24℃ 43%
23℃ 33%
22℃ 17%
21℃ 9%
新規
新規
2026/09/22
18℃以下
$0 Vol.
1%
19℃
$86 Vol.
1%
20°C
$102 Vol.
3%
21℃
$66 Vol.
9%
22℃
$151 Vol.
16%
23℃
$605 Vol.
33%
24℃
$357 Vol.
43%
25℃
$271 Vol.
5%
26℃
$0 Vol.
2%
27℃
$0 Vol.
2%
28℃以上
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent heavy rainfall and associated cloud cover from September 20–21 have introduced cooler, more stable air masses over Tokyo, positioning overnight lows for September 22 primarily in the 21–24°C range according to current forecast consensus.**
Model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles shows lingering moisture and variable winds (northwesterly shifting easterly) limiting radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy to showery conditions. This aligns with historical late-September baselines around 19°C but reflects the temporary suppression from recent precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm in places.
Trader-implied probabilities heavily favor 23–24°C (combined ~76.5%), reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes below 22°C or warmer readings above 25°C, which would require clearer skies or different steering patterns not currently indicated. Updated JMA and global model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these values ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$1,637終了日
2026/09/22マーケット開始日
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent heavy rainfall and associated cloud cover from September 20–21 have introduced cooler, more stable air masses over Tokyo, positioning overnight lows for September 22 primarily in the 21–24°C range according to current forecast consensus.**
Model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles shows lingering moisture and variable winds (northwesterly shifting easterly) limiting radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy to showery conditions. This aligns with historical late-September baselines around 19°C but reflects the temporary suppression from recent precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm in places.
Trader-implied probabilities heavily favor 23–24°C (combined ~76.5%), reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes below 22°C or warmer readings above 25°C, which would require clearer skies or different steering patterns not currently indicated. Updated JMA and global model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these values ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,637終了日
2026/09/22マーケット開始日
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Recent heavy rainfall and associated cloud cover from September 20–21 have introduced cooler, more stable air masses over Tokyo, positioning overnight lows for September 22 primarily in the 21–24°C range according to current forecast consensus.** Model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles shows lingering moisture and variable winds (northwesterly shifting easterly) limiting radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy to showery conditions. This aligns with historical late-September baselines around 19°C but reflects the temporary suppression from recent precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm in places. Trader-implied probabilities heavily favor 23–24°C (combined ~76.5%), reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes below 22°C or warmer readings above 25°C, which would require clearer skies or different steering patterns not currently indicated. Updated JMA and global model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these values ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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