A cold front and associated southerly wind shift are the dominant drivers pushing trader sentiment toward lower outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate overnight lows near 4–5 °C under increasing cloud cover, widespread rain, and strengthening southerlies that advect cooler maritime air. This setup contrasts with recent milder northerly regimes and aligns with historical September cold-front analogs that frequently produce brief dips to 3–5 °C. The market’s highest implied probability on 3 °C or below (40.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing of the southerly change and local topographic cooling, while probabilities clustered around 6–9 °C capture model spread. Updated MetService guidance and the next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月10日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
9月10日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
3℃以下 77%
4°C 40%
5℃ 40%
11°C 40%
新規
新規
2026/09/10
3℃以下
77%
4°C
40%
5℃
40%
6℃
22%
7°C
24%
8°C
22%
9℃
24%
10°C
22%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13℃以上
8%
3℃以下 77%
4°C 40%
5℃ 40%
11°C 40%
新規
新規
2026/09/10
3℃以下
$56 Vol.
77%
4°C
$31 Vol.
40%
5℃
$0 Vol.
40%
6℃
$0 Vol.
22%
7°C
$0 Vol.
24%
8°C
$0 Vol.
22%
9℃
$0 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$20 Vol.
40%
12°C
$35 Vol.
40%
13℃以上
$25 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front and associated southerly wind shift are the dominant drivers pushing trader sentiment toward lower outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate overnight lows near 4–5 °C under increasing cloud cover, widespread rain, and strengthening southerlies that advect cooler maritime air. This setup contrasts with recent milder northerly regimes and aligns with historical September cold-front analogs that frequently produce brief dips to 3–5 °C. The market’s highest implied probability on 3 °C or below (40.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing of the southerly change and local topographic cooling, while probabilities clustered around 6–9 °C capture model spread. Updated MetService guidance and the next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$167終了日
2026/09/10マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front and associated southerly wind shift are the dominant drivers pushing trader sentiment toward lower outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate overnight lows near 4–5 °C under increasing cloud cover, widespread rain, and strengthening southerlies that advect cooler maritime air. This setup contrasts with recent milder northerly regimes and aligns with historical September cold-front analogs that frequently produce brief dips to 3–5 °C. The market’s highest implied probability on 3 °C or below (40.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing of the southerly change and local topographic cooling, while probabilities clustered around 6–9 °C capture model spread. Updated MetService guidance and the next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$167終了日
2026/09/10マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETA cold front and associated southerly wind shift are the dominant drivers pushing trader sentiment toward lower outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate overnight lows near 4–5 °C under increasing cloud cover, widespread rain, and strengthening southerlies that advect cooler maritime air. This setup contrasts with recent milder northerly regimes and aligns with historical September cold-front analogs that frequently produce brief dips to 3–5 °C. The market’s highest implied probability on 3 °C or below (40.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing of the southerly change and local topographic cooling, while probabilities clustered around 6–9 °C capture model spread. Updated MetService guidance and the next model runs will be the key near-term catalysts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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