Trump administration cabinet turnover peaked in April 2026 with departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid internal pressures, policy disputes, and misconduct allegations, but no further major US official exits—including Cabinet secretaries, top White House aides, congressional leaders, governors, or Federal Reserve governors—have occurred in the past two weeks. This lull, absent fresh resignation rumors, Trump statements, or investigations, drives trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for "No" additional departures by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of stabilization after early-term shakeups, though late-breaking scandals or confirmation issues for replacements could still shift dynamics in the final 17 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/05/31
新規
新規
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump administration cabinet turnover peaked in April 2026 with departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid internal pressures, policy disputes, and misconduct allegations, but no further major US official exits—including Cabinet secretaries, top White House aides, congressional leaders, governors, or Federal Reserve governors—have occurred in the past two weeks. This lull, absent fresh resignation rumors, Trump statements, or investigations, drives trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for "No" additional departures by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of stabilization after early-term shakeups, though late-breaking scandals or confirmation issues for replacements could still shift dynamics in the final 17 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$5,598終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump administration cabinet turnover peaked in April 2026 with departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid internal pressures, policy disputes, and misconduct allegations, but no further major US official exits—including Cabinet secretaries, top White House aides, congressional leaders, governors, or Federal Reserve governors—have occurred in the past two weeks. This lull, absent fresh resignation rumors, Trump statements, or investigations, drives trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for "No" additional departures by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of stabilization after early-term shakeups, though late-breaking scandals or confirmation issues for replacements could still shift dynamics in the final 17 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,598終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration cabinet turnover peaked in April 2026 with departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid internal pressures, policy disputes, and misconduct allegations, but no further major US official exits—including Cabinet secretaries, top White House aides, congressional leaders, governors, or Federal Reserve governors—have occurred in the past two weeks. This lull, absent fresh resignation rumors, Trump statements, or investigations, drives trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for "No" additional departures by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of stabilization after early-term shakeups, though late-breaking scandals or confirmation issues for replacements could still shift dynamics in the final 17 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問