Incumbent Republican Jack Bergman secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with a strong majority, facing Democrat Callie Barr in the November general election. Michigan's 1st District, covering the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, with Bergman winning 59 percent in 2024. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan lean, Bergman's incumbency advantages, and limited Democratic infrastructure. These structural and recent factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 87 percent implied probability of holding the seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$19,276 Vol.
$19,276 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
14%
$19,276 Vol.
$19,276 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$10,750 Vol.
87%
民主党
$8,525 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jack Bergman secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with a strong majority, facing Democrat Callie Barr in the November general election. Michigan's 1st District, covering the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, with Bergman winning 59 percent in 2024. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan lean, Bergman's incumbency advantages, and limited Democratic infrastructure. These structural and recent factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 87 percent implied probability of holding the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$19,276終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jack Bergman secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with a strong majority, facing Democrat Callie Barr in the November general election. Michigan's 1st District, covering the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, with Bergman winning 59 percent in 2024. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan lean, Bergman's incumbency advantages, and limited Democratic infrastructure. These structural and recent factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 87 percent implied probability of holding the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,276終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jack Bergman secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with a strong majority, facing Democrat Callie Barr in the November general election. Michigan's 1st District, covering the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, with Bergman winning 59 percent in 2024. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan lean, Bergman's incumbency advantages, and limited Democratic infrastructure. These structural and recent factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 87 percent implied probability of holding the seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問