Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Marine Le Pen announces candidacy despite upheld embezzlement conviction
Marine Le Pen surges to 28%19%
Following a court ruling that upheld her conviction but reduced her ineligibility period, Marine Le Pen announced she would run for president and appeal to the highest court. This caused a sharp increase in her market price reflecting renewed viability as a candidate.
Jordan Bardella faces legal uncertainty as Marine Le Pen's appeal proceeds
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%21%
With Marine Le Pen's eligibility uncertain due to her conviction appeal, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as his potential candidacy became less certain, reflecting the party's internal uncertainty.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign with major rally in Paris
Édouard Philippe jumps to 24%5%
On July 5, 2026, Edouard Philippe held his first major campaign rally at the Adidas Arena in Paris, drawing around 5,000 supporters. He presented a moderate right-wing vision emphasizing the interests of future generations, fiscal responsibility, and a major overhaul of the education system. This event significantly boosted his market standing, as investors reacted positively to his clear campaign launch and policy outline.
Paris appeals court to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election
Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%
The Paris Court of Appeal is set to decide on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her embezzlement conviction, a ruling that will determine her eligibility to run in the 2027 presidential election, causing market uncertainty.
Édouard Philippe holds first major presidential campaign rally in Paris
Édouard Philippe rises to 24%3%
Édouard Philippe launched his presidential campaign with a large rally at the Adidas Arena in Paris, attended by around 5,000 supporters. He outlined his moderate right-wing vision and emphasized themes like education reform and collective effort, which boosted his profile and market support, reflected in a price increase from 21% to 24%.
Édouard Philippe holds major campaign rally for 2027 presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 24%3%
Édouard Philippe held a significant campaign rally in Paris, reinforcing his position as a leading centrist candidate and contributing to a rise in his market price.
Laurent Wauquiez offers political support to Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the Les Républicains deputies, publicly extended support to Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, signaling a consolidation of center-right forces behind Philippe. This endorsement was seen as a strategic addition to Philippe's campaign, likely contributing to increased market confidence in his candidacy.
François Hollande's approval rises among leftist voters despite low overall support
François Hollande dips to 2%1%
Polls in early July showed François Hollande gaining positive reviews among left-wing voters, reaching 46% approval in that group, though his overall market price declined to 2%. This indicates a niche resurgence but limited broader electoral impact.
Marine Le Pen appeal verdict expected, determining her eligibility for 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was set to rule on July 7, 2026, on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her 2025 conviction and five-year ban from holding office. The verdict would decide if she could run in 2027, with a ban likely elevating Jordan Bardella as the RN candidate.
Marine Le Pen expresses no fear ahead of July 7 court ruling on eligibility
Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%
Facing a critical court decision on her appeal against a five-year ban from public office, Marine Le Pen publicly stated she was not afraid, keeping uncertainty over her candidacy alive and affecting market prices.
Court of Appeal to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility to run in 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was expected to decide in summer 2026 whether Marine Le Pen could run in the 2027 presidential election, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting related market prices.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe maintains lead among centrists but faces pressure from Attal and Mélenchon
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
A June 26 Ifop-Fiducial poll showed Édouard Philippe leading the centrist vote but with narrowing margins as Gabriel Attal and Jean-Luc Mélenchon gained ground. Philippe's market price fluctuated around 19-21%, reflecting uncertainty in his campaign strength.
Polls confirm Jordan Bardella's record popularity and far-right lead
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%1%
June polls showed Jordan Bardella's approval rating doubling over four years to 40%, solidifying his lead over Marine Le Pen and other candidates. This reinforced Bardella's market price near 27%, reflecting strong public support for his candidacy.
Franck Leroy, President of Greater East Region, endorses Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
Franck Leroy publicly supported Édouard Philippe for the presidential election, boosting Philippe's credibility and market price as a leading center-right candidate.
Bruno Retailleau announces bid for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau rises to 3%1%
Bruno Retailleau publicly declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing a platform focused on order and prosperity. This announcement was reflected in a slight increase in his market price.
Bruno Retailleau holds first campaign meeting in Paris to build momentum
Retailleau organized his first major campaign meeting at Parc floral de Paris to solidify his candidacy amid questions about his political line and absences of key party figures. The event aimed to create a dynamic for his presidential bid.
Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.
Jordan Bardella gains as Marine Le Pen's substitute candidate amid legal uncertainty
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%4%
With Marine Le Pen's legal troubles ongoing, Jordan Bardella's market probability stabilized and slightly increased as he was positioned as the National Rally's substitute candidate for 2027.
Dominique de Villepin's popularity declines amid presidential speculation
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
Dominique de Villepin's market price dropped significantly as his potential candidacy became less certain and his political influence waned during the analysis period.
Gabriel Attal launches major campaign rally in Paris presenting future-focused platform
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%
On June 10, Gabriel Attal held a large rally in Paris to present his campaign platform emphasizing education, wages, borders, and AI innovation. This event aimed to recast his image as a candidate of renewal, stabilizing his market price around 6% to 9%.
Paris riots boost Jordan Bardella's approval ratings
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%1%
Riots in Paris heightened public concern over disorder and immigration, significantly increasing Bardella's approval and market support as a leading far-right candidate.
Jordan Bardella's popularity surges after PSG-related unrest
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%3%
Following unrest linked to PSG's victory, Jordan Bardella's popularity reached a record high, with polls showing increased public support. This surge contributed to Bardella's market price rising from 24% to 27% in early June, reinforcing his position as the far-right frontrunner.
Gabriel Attal formally launches 2027 presidential campaign with reform agenda
Gabriel Attal rises to 7%1%
Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing fiscal reforms including voluntary public sector job cuts and budget discipline, which affected his market price.
Poll shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon surging, neck and neck with Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%
An Odoxa poll published on May 26 indicated Jean-Luc Mélenchon gaining 4 points to reach 16%, closely matching Édouard Philippe's 17%, signaling a tightening race for second place behind Jordan Bardella. This poll caused Mélenchon's market price to rise from 9% to 12%, while Philippe's price dipped from 21% to 16%.
Gabriel Attal officially launches presidential campaign
Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and leader of Renaissance, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, focusing on optimism and reform to distinguish himself from Macron and other candidates.
Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy in rural France
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%3%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Renaissance party leader, formally declared his candidacy on May 22, 2026, aiming to present a fresh centrist alternative and distancing himself from Macron's legacy. This announcement increased his market price from 3% to 6% shortly after, reflecting renewed interest in his campaign.
Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 French presidential race
Gabriel Attal drops to 2%14%
Gabriel Attal, Secretary General of Renaissance party and former Prime Minister, formally announced his candidacy, aiming to lead the pro-Macron centrist coalition. His entry added competition in the centrist lane, reflected in his market price decline.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 4%24%
Bruno Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate. This leadership victory was a key factor in his market price decline as he entered the race.
Édouard Philippe projects Horizons party towards 2027 presidential election
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and leader of Horizons, positioned himself as a unifying candidate for the 2027 election, distancing from Macron. This bolstered his market price and solidified his candidacy.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right
Édouard Philippe dips to 19%2%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the leading centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally. His campaign launch was associated with a market price around 19%, reflecting his status as a frontrunner among moderates.
Édouard Philippe holds major rally to boost 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 24%6%
Édouard Philippe organized a large rally in Reims to galvanize support for his presidential bid, reflecting his growing momentum and steady polling position.
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking his fourth attempt. This announcement led to a modest market price increase from 10% to 12%, reflecting his continued influence on the left despite challenges in uniting the left-wing vote.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%1%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announced his fourth run for the presidency, maintaining his presence in the race and stabilizing his market price despite lower polling compared to previous elections.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential run
Jean-Luc Mélenchon dips to 10%1%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, which led to a decline in his market price reflecting uncertainty about his electoral prospects.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 11%7%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking his fourth attempt. This solidified his position as the main far-left candidate, impacting his market probability which declined slightly over the period.
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau won the official backing of the Les Républicains party after an internal survey favored launching his campaign immediately over holding a primary. This endorsement was expected to boost his campaign and consolidate right-wing support.
Bruno Retailleau officially nominated as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau secured the official backing of Les Républicains party members, becoming their presidential candidate, which initially boosted his market price before it declined amid competition.
The Republicans endorse Bruno Retailleau as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 41%11%
The Republicans party members voted overwhelmingly to back Bruno Retailleau as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, solidifying his position and impacting his market price positively.
Bruno Retailleau endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidency
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was officially endorsed by the members of Les Républicains as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, solidifying his position in the race. This endorsement led to a market price drop from 28% to 3%, reflecting the competitive and fragmented right-wing field.
Bruno Retailleau officially designated Les Républicains candidate for 2027
Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%
On April 19, 2026, Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly chose Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate, eliminating the need for a primary and causing his market price to rise from 3% to 7%.
Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans candidate for 2027 election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was nominated by The Republicans party as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position and influencing market prices.
Dominique de Villepin declares intent to be 'candidate of unity' for 2027
Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%2%
Dominique de Villepin publicly expressed his desire to be a unifying candidate for the 2027 presidential election on April 10, 2026, which briefly raised his market price from 5% to 7%.
Bruno Retailleau launches observatory to monitor La France Insoumise-led cities
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%5%
Bruno Retailleau announced the creation of an observatory to document and denounce actions by cities led by La France Insoumise, positioning himself strongly against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and energizing his base.
Bruno Retailleau announces surveillance of LFI-led cities
Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%1%
Retailleau launched an observatory to monitor cities governed by La France Insoumise, positioning himself against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and signaling his presidential ambitions, impacting his market support.
Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement with five-year ban from office
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted for embezzlement and sentenced to a five-year ban from holding public office, casting doubt on her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election and impacting her market price.
Édouard Philippe wins re-election as mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe's March 22, 2026 re-election as mayor of Le Havre solidified his status as a leading presidential candidate, reinforcing his campaign and stabilizing his market price around 21%.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre bolstered his position as a credible centrist candidate for the 2027 presidential election, reflected in stable market probabilities.
Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Bruno Retailleau rises to 33%3%
Bruno Retailleau publicly announced his intention to run for the 2027 presidential election, reinforcing his market position as the Republican candidate.
Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Edouard Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his position as a leading center-right candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Marine Le Pen begins appeal trial against embezzlement conviction
Marine Le Pen started her appeal trial aiming to overturn the conviction that barred her from running for office, creating legal uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting market sentiment.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, threatening 2027 candidacy
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026, determining whether she would be eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election after her 2025 conviction barred her from public office. This legal uncertainty contributed to her market price decline from 16% to 9%, with her party's leadership shifting support to Jordan Bardella.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Dominique de Villepin investigated over gifts received as foreign minister
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%
Dominique de Villepin was investigated for charges related to gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, causing a sharp decline in his market price and damaging his presidential prospects.
Dominique de Villepin accelerates preparations for 2027 presidential run
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 10%31%
In mid-December 2025, Dominique de Villepin signed a lease for campaign headquarters in Paris and intensified his campaign organization, signaling serious intent despite low polling. His market price dropped sharply from 41% to 10% reflecting uncertainty about his viability.
Investigation opened into Dominique de Villepin over gifts received as foreign minister
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
A preliminary investigation was launched against Dominique de Villepin concerning alleged gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, negatively impacting his presidential prospects and market price.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%
A November 25, 2025 Odoxa poll predicted far-right leader Jordan Bardella would win the next presidential election regardless of opponents, boosting his market probability from 34% to around 28%. This reflected his rising prominence as the National Rally's presumptive candidate after Marine Le Pen's legal ban.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella as frontrunner for 2027 presidential election
Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%
A poll by Odoxa indicated Jordan Bardella as the leading candidate for the 2027 election, reflecting his rise after Le Pen's ban. This boosted Bardella's market price as he became the favored far-right candidate.
Dominique de Villepin launches new political party 'Humanist France'
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%
Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced the creation of a new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens across political lines. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price from 41% to 3%, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects despite his popularity.
No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition
A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
A poll by Odoxa released in November 2025 showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price from 34% to 27% over the analysis period. This poll established Bardella as a dominant figure despite the crowded field.
Dominique de Villepin officially joins the 2027 presidential race
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%
Dominique de Villepin formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, which initially caused a surge in his market price before it declined due to subsequent events and investigations.
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
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