Trader consensus currently positions Keir Starmer as the likeliest among listed leaders to leave office before 2027 at 42.5 percent, ahead of Gustavo Petro at 33 percent, amid contrasting pressures on their tenures. Starmer faces an acute Labour Party leadership challenge following dismal local election results, sharp drops in approval ratings, cabinet resignations, and public calls for his exit, which could accelerate a transition well before the next general election. Petro, constitutionally ineligible for re-election, heads toward a fixed term end in August 2026 while navigating legislative resistance and economic proposals. The narrow spread between these probabilities highlights the race's tightness, with Starmer's potential early departure or survival and Colombia's May presidential vote outcomes likely to determine the sequence of exits among the field.