Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-11 general election due to the Staten Island-based district's consistent rightward shift, strong support among working-class voters including police and firefighters, and her 2024 victory margin exceeding 28 points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its partisan voting index and limited Democratic competitiveness. Michael DeCillis won the Democratic primary in June 2026, but faces structural barriers on the current map upheld after a redistricting challenge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,855 Vol.
$25,855 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$25,855 Vol.
$25,855 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$12,761 Vol.
94%
民主党
$13,094 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-11 general election due to the Staten Island-based district's consistent rightward shift, strong support among working-class voters including police and firefighters, and her 2024 victory margin exceeding 28 points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its partisan voting index and limited Democratic competitiveness. Michael DeCillis won the Democratic primary in June 2026, but faces structural barriers on the current map upheld after a redistricting challenge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
音量
$25,855終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-11 general election due to the Staten Island-based district's consistent rightward shift, strong support among working-class voters including police and firefighters, and her 2024 victory margin exceeding 28 points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its partisan voting index and limited Democratic competitiveness. Michael DeCillis won the Democratic primary in June 2026, but faces structural barriers on the current map upheld after a redistricting challenge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,855終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-11 general election due to the Staten Island-based district's consistent rightward shift, strong support among working-class voters including police and firefighters, and her 2024 victory margin exceeding 28 points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its partisan voting index and limited Democratic competitiveness. Michael DeCillis won the Democratic primary in June 2026, but faces structural barriers on the current map upheld after a redistricting challenge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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