Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a 73% implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3, 2026, NY-21 general election, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25%. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik after her gubernatorial bid ended, favors the Republican in this North Country district with its established partisan lean. Primaries concluded June 23, with Constantino defeating state Assemblyman Robert Smullen for the GOP line and Gendebien securing the Democratic nomination over Stuart Amoriell. Recent polling and market pricing reflect Constantino’s stronger positioning in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, though voter turnout, campaign spending, and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$56,867 Vol.
$56,867 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
73%
民主党
25%
$56,867 Vol.
$56,867 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$27,396 Vol.
73%
民主党
$29,471 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a 73% implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3, 2026, NY-21 general election, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25%. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik after her gubernatorial bid ended, favors the Republican in this North Country district with its established partisan lean. Primaries concluded June 23, with Constantino defeating state Assemblyman Robert Smullen for the GOP line and Gendebien securing the Democratic nomination over Stuart Amoriell. Recent polling and market pricing reflect Constantino’s stronger positioning in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, though voter turnout, campaign spending, and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$56,867終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a 73% implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3, 2026, NY-21 general election, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25%. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik after her gubernatorial bid ended, favors the Republican in this North Country district with its established partisan lean. Primaries concluded June 23, with Constantino defeating state Assemblyman Robert Smullen for the GOP line and Gendebien securing the Democratic nomination over Stuart Amoriell. Recent polling and market pricing reflect Constantino’s stronger positioning in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, though voter turnout, campaign spending, and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$56,867終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a 73% implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3, 2026, NY-21 general election, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25%. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik after her gubernatorial bid ended, favors the Republican in this North Country district with its established partisan lean. Primaries concluded June 23, with Constantino defeating state Assemblyman Robert Smullen for the GOP line and Gendebien securing the Democratic nomination over Stuart Amoriell. Recent polling and market pricing reflect Constantino’s stronger positioning in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, though voter turnout, campaign spending, and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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