The market assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by recent reports of an internal rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive 2026 timeline. OpenAI’s heavy infrastructure spending on GPUs and data centers, combined with the need to meet rigorous public-company reporting standards, has prompted analysts to shift expectations toward a mid- or late-2027 listing despite robust revenue growth exceeding $25 billion annualized. Competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs and ongoing legal matters further complicate preparations, while the company’s latest private valuation near $850 billion underscores strong underlying demand for its large language models. Traders will watch for any S-1 filing activity or updated guidance in the second half of 2026 as potential catalysts that could still alter these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年12月31日までにIPOなし 74%
1.5兆ドル以上 8.0%
1.25兆～1.5兆 3.7%
5,000〜7,500億ドル 3.5%
$1,638,745 Vol.
$1,638,745 Vol.
2026/06/30
5,000億ドル未満
1%
5,000〜7,500億ドル
3%
7,500億〜1兆
2%
1兆〜1.25兆ドル
2%
1.25兆～1.5兆
4%
1.5兆ドル以上
8%
2026年12月31日までにIPOなし
74%
2026年12月31日までにIPOなし 74%
1.5兆ドル以上 8.0%
1.25兆～1.5兆 3.7%
5,000〜7,500億ドル 3.5%
$1,638,745 Vol.
$1,638,745 Vol.
2026/06/30
5,000億ドル未満
$266,170 Vol.
1%
5,000〜7,500億ドル
$146,331 Vol.
3%
7,500億〜1兆
$141,042 Vol.
2%
1兆〜1.25兆ドル
$182,614 Vol.
2%
1.25兆～1.5兆
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1.5兆ドル以上
$101,032 Vol.
8%
2026年12月31日までにIPOなし
$305,049 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The market assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by recent reports of an internal rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive 2026 timeline. OpenAI’s heavy infrastructure spending on GPUs and data centers, combined with the need to meet rigorous public-company reporting standards, has prompted analysts to shift expectations toward a mid- or late-2027 listing despite robust revenue growth exceeding $25 billion annualized. Competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs and ongoing legal matters further complicate preparations, while the company’s latest private valuation near $850 billion underscores strong underlying demand for its large language models. Traders will watch for any S-1 filing activity or updated guidance in the second half of 2026 as potential catalysts that could still alter these odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
音量
$1,638,745終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The market assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by recent reports of an internal rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive 2026 timeline. OpenAI’s heavy infrastructure spending on GPUs and data centers, combined with the need to meet rigorous public-company reporting standards, has prompted analysts to shift expectations toward a mid- or late-2027 listing despite robust revenue growth exceeding $25 billion annualized. Competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs and ongoing legal matters further complicate preparations, while the company’s latest private valuation near $850 billion underscores strong underlying demand for its large language models. Traders will watch for any S-1 filing activity or updated guidance in the second half of 2026 as potential catalysts that could still alter these odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,638,745終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by recent reports of an internal rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over an aggressive 2026 timeline. OpenAI’s heavy infrastructure spending on GPUs and data centers, combined with the need to meet rigorous public-company reporting standards, has prompted analysts to shift expectations toward a mid- or late-2027 listing despite robust revenue growth exceeding $25 billion annualized. Competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs and ongoing legal matters further complicate preparations, while the company’s latest private valuation near $850 billion underscores strong underlying demand for its large language models. Traders will watch for any S-1 filing activity or updated guidance in the second half of 2026 as potential catalysts that could still alter these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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