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icon for サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?

サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?

icon for サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?

サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?

はい

5% 確率
Polymarket
新規

はい

5% 確率
Polymarket
新規
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Sam Altman has publicly endorsed the broader idea of pacing frontier AI development multiple times since the July 2026 release of the Pacing the Frontier statement, including recent agreement with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on safety evaluations and independent auditors, yet he has never signed the specific employee petition.** The statement, which calls for U.S. government support of international tools to deliberately slow automated AI research if needed, drew over 1,300 verified signatories from labs including OpenAI staff but excluded Altman from the outset. His consistent avoidance aligns with earlier comments warning against arrangements that could appear as regulatory capture or collusion among frontier labs. With the September 30 deadline only weeks away and no new developments signaling a change, traders see near-certain resolution on "No." While a surprise last-minute signature remains theoretically possible amid evolving safety incidents or policy pressure, Altman's pattern of supporting the concept on his own terms makes that outcome highly improbable.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,998
終了日
2026/10/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Sam Altman has publicly endorsed the broader idea of pacing frontier AI development multiple times since the July 2026 release of the Pacing the Frontier statement, including recent agreement with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on safety evaluations and independent auditors, yet he has never signed the specific employee petition.** The statement, which calls for U.S. government support of international tools to deliberately slow automated AI research if needed, drew over 1,300 verified signatories from labs including OpenAI staff but excluded Altman from the outset. His consistent avoidance aligns with earlier comments warning against arrangements that could appear as regulatory capture or collusion among frontier labs. With the September 30 deadline only weeks away and no new developments signaling a change, traders see near-certain resolution on "No." While a surprise last-minute signature remains theoretically possible amid evolving safety incidents or policy pressure, Altman's pattern of supporting the concept on his own terms makes that outcome highly improbable.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,998
終了日
2026/10/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「サム・アルトマンは9月30日までに「Pacing the Frontier」声明に署名しますか?」で5%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Sep 14, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?」の現在のリーダーは「サム・アルトマンは9月30日までに「Pacing the Frontier」声明に署名しますか?」でわずか5%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「サム・アルトマンは、9月30日までにペーシング・ザ・フロンティアの声明に署名しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。