Recent polling averages since the October 5 snap election call place the PP at roughly 31-32% and Vox at 18-19%, with the PSOE around 26%. These figures project PP+Vox at 186-212 seats in the 350-seat Congress, comfortably above the 176-seat absolute majority threshold in nearly all simulations from multiple forecasters. The right-wing bloc's position stems from sustained PSOE erosion since 2023 and Vox gains that more than double its prior representation, while Sánchez's left-leaning partners remain fragmented. Housing protests and the parliamentary defeat of government decrees triggered the early vote, yet post-announcement surveys have shown limited left recovery. Trader consensus on a PP+Vox majority aligns with this polling stability six weeks from the November 29 contest.