**Recent U.S. statements signal intensified economic pressure on Iran but have not yet produced a new executive order.** On August 19–20, 2026, President Trump posted warnings of “Economic Warfare” and “unprecedented” sanctions against Iran and any country providing it a “lifeline,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly pledged the “toughest sanctions in history” as a “one-two punch” with the naval blockade. Bessent indicated he would release specifics at a Monday press conference, yet reports through August 21 describe the measures in terms of OFAC designations, general-license adjustments, secondary sanctions, and designations targeting networks rather than a fresh presidential executive order. The market’s 56% “No” probability reflects this distinction and the narrow window. Existing authorities and prior executive orders (including the February 2026 order and the revoked June General License X) already enable broad sanctions actions without requiring a new EO by August 28. The post-MOU breakdown and renewed Hormuz tensions have accelerated rhetoric, but the administration’s pattern favors targeted Treasury and State Department steps over a single new executive order within seven days. Late-breaking details from Bessent’s upcoming briefing or an unanticipated formal order could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日44% 確率
新規
新規
2026/08/28
44% 確率
新規
新規
2026/08/28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent U.S. statements signal intensified economic pressure on Iran but have not yet produced a new executive order.** On August 19–20, 2026, President Trump posted warnings of “Economic Warfare” and “unprecedented” sanctions against Iran and any country providing it a “lifeline,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly pledged the “toughest sanctions in history” as a “one-two punch” with the naval blockade. Bessent indicated he would release specifics at a Monday press conference, yet reports through August 21 describe the measures in terms of OFAC designations, general-license adjustments, secondary sanctions, and designations targeting networks rather than a fresh presidential executive order.
The market’s 56% “No” probability reflects this distinction and the narrow window. Existing authorities and prior executive orders (including the February 2026 order and the revoked June General License X) already enable broad sanctions actions without requiring a new EO by August 28. The post-MOU breakdown and renewed Hormuz tensions have accelerated rhetoric, but the administration’s pattern favors targeted Treasury and State Department steps over a single new executive order within seven days. Late-breaking details from Bessent’s upcoming briefing or an unanticipated formal order could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/28マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent U.S. statements signal intensified economic pressure on Iran but have not yet produced a new executive order.** On August 19–20, 2026, President Trump posted warnings of “Economic Warfare” and “unprecedented” sanctions against Iran and any country providing it a “lifeline,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly pledged the “toughest sanctions in history” as a “one-two punch” with the naval blockade. Bessent indicated he would release specifics at a Monday press conference, yet reports through August 21 describe the measures in terms of OFAC designations, general-license adjustments, secondary sanctions, and designations targeting networks rather than a fresh presidential executive order.
The market’s 56% “No” probability reflects this distinction and the narrow window. Existing authorities and prior executive orders (including the February 2026 order and the revoked June General License X) already enable broad sanctions actions without requiring a new EO by August 28. The post-MOU breakdown and renewed Hormuz tensions have accelerated rhetoric, but the administration’s pattern favors targeted Treasury and State Department steps over a single new executive order within seven days. Late-breaking details from Bessent’s upcoming briefing or an unanticipated formal order could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/28マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S. statements signal intensified economic pressure on Iran but have not yet produced a new executive order.** On August 19–20, 2026, President Trump posted warnings of “Economic Warfare” and “unprecedented” sanctions against Iran and any country providing it a “lifeline,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly pledged the “toughest sanctions in history” as a “one-two punch” with the naval blockade. Bessent indicated he would release specifics at a Monday press conference, yet reports through August 21 describe the measures in terms of OFAC designations, general-license adjustments, secondary sanctions, and designations targeting networks rather than a fresh presidential executive order. The market’s 56% “No” probability reflects this distinction and the narrow window. Existing authorities and prior executive orders (including the February 2026 order and the revoked June General License X) already enable broad sanctions actions without requiring a new EO by August 28. The post-MOU breakdown and renewed Hormuz tensions have accelerated rhetoric, but the administration’s pattern favors targeted Treasury and State Department steps over a single new executive order within seven days. Late-breaking details from Bessent’s upcoming briefing or an unanticipated formal order could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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