US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA continues to bar Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft while it possesses the Russian S-400 system, requiring formal certification by the secretaries of state and defense that Ankara no longer holds the equipment and will not acquire similar systems. President Trump’s July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and renewed consideration of sales, yet a State Department letter to Congress on July 22 confirmed Turkey had not satisfied the statutory conditions. Turkish officials have discussed transferring the S-400 to a third party, while Congress, Greece, and Israel have signaled opposition over security and technology-sharing risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles remain the dominant constraint on any near-term reentry.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$43,461 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年12月31日
10%
2027年6月30日
25%
$43,461 Vol.
2026年12月31日
$31,959 Vol.
10%
2027年6月30日
$11,502 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA continues to bar Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft while it possesses the Russian S-400 system, requiring formal certification by the secretaries of state and defense that Ankara no longer holds the equipment and will not acquire similar systems. President Trump’s July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and renewed consideration of sales, yet a State Department letter to Congress on July 22 confirmed Turkey had not satisfied the statutory conditions. Turkish officials have discussed transferring the S-400 to a third party, while Congress, Greece, and Israel have signaled opposition over security and technology-sharing risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles remain the dominant constraint on any near-term reentry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
音量
$43,461終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA continues to bar Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft while it possesses the Russian S-400 system, requiring formal certification by the secretaries of state and defense that Ankara no longer holds the equipment and will not acquire similar systems. President Trump’s July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and renewed consideration of sales, yet a State Department letter to Congress on July 22 confirmed Turkey had not satisfied the statutory conditions. Turkish officials have discussed transferring the S-400 to a third party, while Congress, Greece, and Israel have signaled opposition over security and technology-sharing risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles remain the dominant constraint on any near-term reentry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
音量
$43,461終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA continues to bar Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft while it possesses the Russian S-400 system, requiring formal certification by the secretaries of state and defense that Ankara no longer holds the equipment and will not acquire similar systems. President Trump’s July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and renewed consideration of sales, yet a State Department letter to Congress on July 22 confirmed Turkey had not satisfied the statutory conditions. Turkish officials have discussed transferring the S-400 to a third party, while Congress, Greece, and Israel have signaled opposition over security and technology-sharing risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles remain the dominant constraint on any near-term reentry.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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