Anthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 97.3%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,816,682 Vol.
$1,816,682 Vol.
2026/08/31
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Meta
<1%
アリババ
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
美団
<1%
テンセント
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 97.3%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,816,682 Vol.
$1,816,682 Vol.
2026/08/31
Anthropic
$371,909 Vol.
97%
OpenAI
$154,689 Vol.
2%
$140,296 Vol.
1%
Meta
$149,725 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$139,475 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$150,365 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$154,631 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$225,827 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$108,007 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$103,190 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
美団
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
音量
$1,816,682終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$1,816,682終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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