Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 90%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$608,728 Vol.
$608,728 Vol.
2026/05/31
Anthropic
90%
10%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$608,728 Vol.
$608,728 Vol.
2026/05/31
Anthropic
$58,978 Vol.
90%
$65,440 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$37,841 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$61,147 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$41,764 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$52,617 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$608,728終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$608,728終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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