Anthropic leads the implied probabilities for the strongest math-focused large language model by end of May due to Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting top scores on key benchmarks such as AIME 2025 and MATH-500 through extended thinking modes that improve multi-step reasoning. Traders appear to view these releases as establishing a temporary edge in competition-style mathematics over OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think, which trail slightly in recent head-to-head evaluations despite strong general reasoning results. With resolution only days away, any final model updates or independent leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could still shift the narrow gap between the top three contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 20%
Google 15%
xAI <1%
$114,388 Vol.
$114,388 Vol.
2026/05/31
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
20%
15%
xAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 20%
Google 15%
xAI <1%
$114,388 Vol.
$114,388 Vol.
2026/05/31
Anthropic
$18,209 Vol.
63%
OpenAI
$18,662 Vol.
20%
$11,032 Vol.
15%
xAI
$8,724 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$6,720 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$6,536 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$6,392 Vol.
1%
Meta
$6,348 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$6,786 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$7,026 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$7,869 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,116 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,546 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads the implied probabilities for the strongest math-focused large language model by end of May due to Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting top scores on key benchmarks such as AIME 2025 and MATH-500 through extended thinking modes that improve multi-step reasoning. Traders appear to view these releases as establishing a temporary edge in competition-style mathematics over OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think, which trail slightly in recent head-to-head evaluations despite strong general reasoning results. With resolution only days away, any final model updates or independent leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could still shift the narrow gap between the top three contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$114,388終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads the implied probabilities for the strongest math-focused large language model by end of May due to Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting top scores on key benchmarks such as AIME 2025 and MATH-500 through extended thinking modes that improve multi-step reasoning. Traders appear to view these releases as establishing a temporary edge in competition-style mathematics over OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think, which trail slightly in recent head-to-head evaluations despite strong general reasoning results. With resolution only days away, any final model updates or independent leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could still shift the narrow gap between the top three contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$114,388終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads the implied probabilities for the strongest math-focused large language model by end of May due to Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting top scores on key benchmarks such as AIME 2025 and MATH-500 through extended thinking modes that improve multi-step reasoning. Traders appear to view these releases as establishing a temporary edge in competition-style mathematics over OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think, which trail slightly in recent head-to-head evaluations despite strong general reasoning results. With resolution only days away, any final model updates or independent leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could still shift the narrow gap between the top three contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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