Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at 95.4% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) on May 16, driven by its recent surge to the #1 spot with a record Elo rating of approximately 1502–1504. This "thinking" variant—leveraging enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning—has demonstrated superior win rates in crowdsourced battles across coding, math, and creative tasks, outpacing Anthropic's own Opus 4.7 (at 1501 Elo) and distant rivals like GPT-5.5-high. Recent X discussions and benchmark updates confirm its edge in real-world preference, reflecting Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities. With resolution imminent in 48 hours, volatility from new model drops or voting surges could challenge this lead, though inertia and limited time strongly support the status quo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日claude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.4%
Other 2.0%
claude-opus-4-6 2.0%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$24,402 Vol.
$24,402 Vol.
2026/05/16
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
95%
Other
2%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
claude-opus-4-7
1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.4%
Other 2.0%
claude-opus-4-6 2.0%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$24,402 Vol.
$24,402 Vol.
2026/05/16
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$6,150 Vol.
95%
Other
$1,664 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,576 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,779 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,788 Vol.
1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,600 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at 95.4% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) on May 16, driven by its recent surge to the #1 spot with a record Elo rating of approximately 1502–1504. This "thinking" variant—leveraging enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning—has demonstrated superior win rates in crowdsourced battles across coding, math, and creative tasks, outpacing Anthropic's own Opus 4.7 (at 1501 Elo) and distant rivals like GPT-5.5-high. Recent X discussions and benchmark updates confirm its edge in real-world preference, reflecting Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities. With resolution imminent in 48 hours, volatility from new model drops or voting surges could challenge this lead, though inertia and limited time strongly support the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
音量
$24,402終了日
2026/05/16マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at 95.4% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) on May 16, driven by its recent surge to the #1 spot with a record Elo rating of approximately 1502–1504. This "thinking" variant—leveraging enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning—has demonstrated superior win rates in crowdsourced battles across coding, math, and creative tasks, outpacing Anthropic's own Opus 4.7 (at 1501 Elo) and distant rivals like GPT-5.5-high. Recent X discussions and benchmark updates confirm its edge in real-world preference, reflecting Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities. With resolution imminent in 48 hours, volatility from new model drops or voting surges could challenge this lead, though inertia and limited time strongly support the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$24,402終了日
2026/05/16マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at 95.4% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) on May 16, driven by its recent surge to the #1 spot with a record Elo rating of approximately 1502–1504. This "thinking" variant—leveraging enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning—has demonstrated superior win rates in crowdsourced battles across coding, math, and creative tasks, outpacing Anthropic's own Opus 4.7 (at 1501 Elo) and distant rivals like GPT-5.5-high. Recent X discussions and benchmark updates confirm its edge in real-world preference, reflecting Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities. With resolution imminent in 48 hours, volatility from new model drops or voting surges could challenge this lead, though inertia and limited time strongly support the status quo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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