Traders currently assign Anthropic a 59% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by the strong benchmark performance of its recently released Claude Opus 4.7, which excels in coding and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 lead and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Google follows at 28.5% on the back of its Gemini 3.1 series’ high accuracy scores and expanded context windows, while Alibaba’s Qwen updates and Meta’s recent open-weight efforts trail further behind. These positions reflect trader assessments of competitive positioning in the current leaderboard environment, with potential shifts possible from upcoming model iterations or new capability demonstrations before the June resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 9.4%
Meituan 7.6%
新規
新規
2026/06/30
Anthropic
58%
32%
Meta
9%
Meituan
8%
xAI
6%
DeepSeek
5%
OpenAI
5%
Amazon
5%
Mistral
3%
Alibaba
21%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
8%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 9.4%
Meituan 7.6%
新規
新規
2026/06/30
Anthropic
$309 Vol.
58%
$416 Vol.
32%
Meta
$126 Vol.
9%
Meituan
$179 Vol.
8%
xAI
$200 Vol.
6%
DeepSeek
$186 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$250 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$186 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$186 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$186 Vol.
21%
Baidu
$188 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$126 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$126 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$186 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$159 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders currently assign Anthropic a 59% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by the strong benchmark performance of its recently released Claude Opus 4.7, which excels in coding and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 lead and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Google follows at 28.5% on the back of its Gemini 3.1 series’ high accuracy scores and expanded context windows, while Alibaba’s Qwen updates and Meta’s recent open-weight efforts trail further behind. These positions reflect trader assessments of competitive positioning in the current leaderboard environment, with potential shifts possible from upcoming model iterations or new capability demonstrations before the June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$3,009終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders currently assign Anthropic a 59% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by the strong benchmark performance of its recently released Claude Opus 4.7, which excels in coding and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 lead and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Google follows at 28.5% on the back of its Gemini 3.1 series’ high accuracy scores and expanded context windows, while Alibaba’s Qwen updates and Meta’s recent open-weight efforts trail further behind. These positions reflect trader assessments of competitive positioning in the current leaderboard environment, with potential shifts possible from upcoming model iterations or new capability demonstrations before the June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$3,009終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders currently assign Anthropic a 59% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by the strong benchmark performance of its recently released Claude Opus 4.7, which excels in coding and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 lead and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Google follows at 28.5% on the back of its Gemini 3.1 series’ high accuracy scores and expanded context windows, while Alibaba’s Qwen updates and Meta’s recent open-weight efforts trail further behind. These positions reflect trader assessments of competitive positioning in the current leaderboard environment, with potential shifts possible from upcoming model iterations or new capability demonstrations before the June resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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