Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and first foldable iPhone Ultra drives the near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports from Pegatron and Largan Precision cite memory and chip shortages that prompted Apple to prioritize higher-margin premium models for the traditional fall window while shifting the base iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 to spring 2027. This split-launch strategy aligns with Apple’s growing lineup and historical preference for maintaining flagship cadence despite component constraints. Traders assign only minimal probability to full cancellation or further slips, as the September keynote and production timelines for Pro devices remain on track.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
99% 確率
$175,236 Vol.
$175,236 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
99% 確率
$175,236 Vol.
$175,236 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and first foldable iPhone Ultra drives the near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports from Pegatron and Largan Precision cite memory and chip shortages that prompted Apple to prioritize higher-margin premium models for the traditional fall window while shifting the base iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 to spring 2027. This split-launch strategy aligns with Apple’s growing lineup and historical preference for maintaining flagship cadence despite component constraints. Traders assign only minimal probability to full cancellation or further slips, as the September keynote and production timelines for Pro devices remain on track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$175,236終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and first foldable iPhone Ultra drives the near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports from Pegatron and Largan Precision cite memory and chip shortages that prompted Apple to prioritize higher-margin premium models for the traditional fall window while shifting the base iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 to spring 2027. This split-launch strategy aligns with Apple’s growing lineup and historical preference for maintaining flagship cadence despite component constraints. Traders assign only minimal probability to full cancellation or further slips, as the September keynote and production timelines for Pro devices remain on track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$175,236終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and first foldable iPhone Ultra drives the near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports from Pegatron and Largan Precision cite memory and chip shortages that prompted Apple to prioritize higher-margin premium models for the traditional fall window while shifting the base iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 to spring 2027. This split-launch strategy aligns with Apple’s growing lineup and historical preference for maintaining flagship cadence despite component constraints. Traders assign only minimal probability to full cancellation or further slips, as the September keynote and production timelines for Pro devices remain on track.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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