Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and related services, plus additional degraded-performance days earlier in the month, underscore Anthropic’s ongoing infrastructure strain amid surging demand for its large language models. Traders view this pattern of frequent partial outages and login issues as likely to persist into September, positioning 8–10 days of downtime as the consensus outcome at 42% implied probability. Historical 90-day data showing over 100 incidents, combined with slow rollout of new compute capacity, reinforces expectations for moderate but recurring disruptions rather than either minimal or extreme downtime. No major stabilizing upgrades have been confirmed ahead of the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8〜10 41%
11〜13 31%
5～7 25%
14回以上 7%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
5未満
4%
5～7
25%
8〜10
41%
11〜13
31%
14回以上
7%
8〜10 41%
11〜13 31%
5～7 25%
14回以上 7%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
5未満
$159 Vol.
4%
5～7
$5 Vol.
25%
8〜10
$105 Vol.
41%
11〜13
$213 Vol.
31%
14回以上
$93 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and related services, plus additional degraded-performance days earlier in the month, underscore Anthropic’s ongoing infrastructure strain amid surging demand for its large language models. Traders view this pattern of frequent partial outages and login issues as likely to persist into September, positioning 8–10 days of downtime as the consensus outcome at 42% implied probability. Historical 90-day data showing over 100 incidents, combined with slow rollout of new compute capacity, reinforces expectations for moderate but recurring disruptions rather than either minimal or extreme downtime. No major stabilizing upgrades have been confirmed ahead of the month.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
音量
$576終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and related services, plus additional degraded-performance days earlier in the month, underscore Anthropic’s ongoing infrastructure strain amid surging demand for its large language models. Traders view this pattern of frequent partial outages and login issues as likely to persist into September, positioning 8–10 days of downtime as the consensus outcome at 42% implied probability. Historical 90-day data showing over 100 incidents, combined with slow rollout of new compute capacity, reinforces expectations for moderate but recurring disruptions rather than either minimal or extreme downtime. No major stabilizing upgrades have been confirmed ahead of the month.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
音量
$576終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and related services, plus additional degraded-performance days earlier in the month, underscore Anthropic’s ongoing infrastructure strain amid surging demand for its large language models. Traders view this pattern of frequent partial outages and login issues as likely to persist into September, positioning 8–10 days of downtime as the consensus outcome at 42% implied probability. Historical 90-day data showing over 100 incidents, combined with slow rollout of new compute capacity, reinforces expectations for moderate but recurring disruptions rather than either minimal or extreme downtime. No major stabilizing upgrades have been confirmed ahead of the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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