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icon for 次の神話級モデルは… ？
テクノロジー·AI

次の神話級モデルは… ？

icon for 次の神話級モデルは… ？
テクノロジー·AI

次の神話級モデルは… ？

8月28日 27%

9月1日 27%

9月26日 26%

8月26日 26%

Polymarket
新規

8月28日 27%

9月1日 27%

9月26日 26%

8月26日 26%

Polymarket
新規

8月25日まで

$5 Vol.

1%

8月26日

$5 Vol.

26%

8月27日

$5 Vol.

17%

8月28日

$5 Vol.

27%

8月29日

$490 Vol.

1%

8月30日

$490 Vol.

9%

8月31日

$5 Vol.

17%

9月1日

$5 Vol.

27%

9月2日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月3日

$95 Vol.

22%

9月4日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月5日

$195 Vol.

23%

9月6日

$195 Vol.

14%

9月7日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月8日

$95 Vol.

22%

9月9日

$95 Vol.

21%

9月10日

$95 Vol.

20%

9月11日

$5 Vol.

20%

9月12日

$95 Vol.

14%

9月13日

$95 Vol.

22%

9月14日

$95 Vol.

25%

9月15日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月16日

$95 Vol.

22%

9月17日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月18日

$95 Vol.

20%

9月19日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月20日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月21日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月22日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月23日

$95 Vol.

22%

9月24日

$95 Vol.

20%

9月25日

$95 Vol.

19%

9月26日

$95 Vol.

26%

9月27日

$95 Vol.

18%

9月28日

$95 Vol.

25%

9月29日

$95 Vol.

22%

9月30日

$95 Vol.

24%

9月30日までに発売なし

$115 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**No release by September 30 leads at 45% amid closely matched September dates (27–36.5%), reflecting trader uncertainty over Anthropic’s next Mythos-class model after the June 9, 2026 launches of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5.** The primary driver is the absence of official announcements, credible leaks, or supply-chain signals indicating an imminent successor. Anthropic has emphasized developing stronger cybersecurity safeguards for these frontier large language models, which outperform prior Opus-class systems on agentic coding, vulnerability discovery, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and others, combined with U.S. regulatory oversight of dual-use capabilities, appear to favor a measured rollout timeline. Traders see the 45% probability on “no release by September 30” as capturing realistic delays in scaling safe deployment, while the clustered mid-30% odds on early-to-mid September dates highlight the potential for a surprise announcement if internal testing or competitive positioning accelerates.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,990
終了日
2026/09/30
マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**No release by September 30 leads at 45% amid closely matched September dates (27–36.5%), reflecting trader uncertainty over Anthropic’s next Mythos-class model after the June 9, 2026 launches of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5.** The primary driver is the absence of official announcements, credible leaks, or supply-chain signals indicating an imminent successor. Anthropic has emphasized developing stronger cybersecurity safeguards for these frontier large language models, which outperform prior Opus-class systems on agentic coding, vulnerability discovery, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and others, combined with U.S. regulatory oversight of dual-use capabilities, appear to favor a measured rollout timeline. Traders see the 45% probability on “no release by September 30” as capturing realistic delays in scaling safe deployment, while the clustered mid-30% odds on early-to-mid September dates highlight the potential for a surprise announcement if internal testing or competitive positioning accelerates.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,990
終了日
2026/09/30
マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「次の神話級モデルは… ？」はPolymarket上の38個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「8月28日」で27%、次いで「9月1日」が27%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、27¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に27%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「次の神話級モデルは… ？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Aug 24, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「次の神話級モデルは… ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている38個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次の神話級モデルは… ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「8月28日」で27%であり、市場がこの結果に27%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「9月1日」で27%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次の神話級モデルは… ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。