Iran’s spring 2026 threats to exit the NPT, coupled with Majlis legislation introduced after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, temporarily elevated withdrawal risks. Subsequent diplomatic engagement produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ending active hostilities, followed by renewed U.S.-Iran technical talks on enrichment limits, verification, and sanctions relief. Tehran has continued submitting working papers to the NPT review process and engaging IAEA safeguards discussions through mid-2026. With formal notice of withdrawal under Article X still absent and only months remaining before 2027, traders price the low probability of an imminent exit as reflecting de-escalation through bilateral channels rather than rupture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
10% 確率
$357,389 Vol.
$357,389 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
10% 確率
$357,389 Vol.
$357,389 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s spring 2026 threats to exit the NPT, coupled with Majlis legislation introduced after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, temporarily elevated withdrawal risks. Subsequent diplomatic engagement produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ending active hostilities, followed by renewed U.S.-Iran technical talks on enrichment limits, verification, and sanctions relief. Tehran has continued submitting working papers to the NPT review process and engaging IAEA safeguards discussions through mid-2026. With formal notice of withdrawal under Article X still absent and only months remaining before 2027, traders price the low probability of an imminent exit as reflecting de-escalation through bilateral channels rather than rupture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$357,389終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s spring 2026 threats to exit the NPT, coupled with Majlis legislation introduced after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, temporarily elevated withdrawal risks. Subsequent diplomatic engagement produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ending active hostilities, followed by renewed U.S.-Iran technical talks on enrichment limits, verification, and sanctions relief. Tehran has continued submitting working papers to the NPT review process and engaging IAEA safeguards discussions through mid-2026. With formal notice of withdrawal under Article X still absent and only months remaining before 2027, traders price the low probability of an imminent exit as reflecting de-escalation through bilateral channels rather than rupture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$357,389終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s spring 2026 threats to exit the NPT, coupled with Majlis legislation introduced after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, temporarily elevated withdrawal risks. Subsequent diplomatic engagement produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ending active hostilities, followed by renewed U.S.-Iran technical talks on enrichment limits, verification, and sanctions relief. Tehran has continued submitting working papers to the NPT review process and engaging IAEA safeguards discussions through mid-2026. With formal notice of withdrawal under Article X still absent and only months remaining before 2027, traders price the low probability of an imminent exit as reflecting de-escalation through bilateral channels rather than rupture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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