Iran has periodically threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, snapback sanctions, and IAEA disputes over enriched uranium stockpiles and access. Parliamentary bills were introduced in mid-2025 and referenced again in early 2026, but none advanced to formal action. As of mid-2026 IAEA reports, Iran's program shows limited change post-conflict, with ongoing verification demands, interim U.S. talks, and no enrichment or new stockpiling reported. Withdrawal would immediately end safeguards obligations and intensify isolation without clear strategic gain, while continued NPT participation preserves diplomatic leverage and IAEA channels. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring continued adherence through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
$359,144 Vol.
$359,144 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
8% 確率
$359,144 Vol.
$359,144 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has periodically threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, snapback sanctions, and IAEA disputes over enriched uranium stockpiles and access. Parliamentary bills were introduced in mid-2025 and referenced again in early 2026, but none advanced to formal action. As of mid-2026 IAEA reports, Iran's program shows limited change post-conflict, with ongoing verification demands, interim U.S. talks, and no enrichment or new stockpiling reported. Withdrawal would immediately end safeguards obligations and intensify isolation without clear strategic gain, while continued NPT participation preserves diplomatic leverage and IAEA channels. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring continued adherence through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$359,144終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has periodically threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, snapback sanctions, and IAEA disputes over enriched uranium stockpiles and access. Parliamentary bills were introduced in mid-2025 and referenced again in early 2026, but none advanced to formal action. As of mid-2026 IAEA reports, Iran's program shows limited change post-conflict, with ongoing verification demands, interim U.S. talks, and no enrichment or new stockpiling reported. Withdrawal would immediately end safeguards obligations and intensify isolation without clear strategic gain, while continued NPT participation preserves diplomatic leverage and IAEA channels. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring continued adherence through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$359,144終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has periodically threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, snapback sanctions, and IAEA disputes over enriched uranium stockpiles and access. Parliamentary bills were introduced in mid-2025 and referenced again in early 2026, but none advanced to formal action. As of mid-2026 IAEA reports, Iran's program shows limited change post-conflict, with ongoing verification demands, interim U.S. talks, and no enrichment or new stockpiling reported. Withdrawal would immediately end safeguards obligations and intensify isolation without clear strategic gain, while continued NPT participation preserves diplomatic leverage and IAEA channels. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring continued adherence through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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