Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX IPOing first, with 98% implied probability reflecting its advanced preparations versus OpenAI's stalled momentum. SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 registration in early April 2026, accelerating toward a late-June Nasdaq debut at a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation, complete with analyst briefings, accelerated employee share vesting, and a roadshow starting June 8—potentially the largest IPO ever. OpenAI, despite $25 billion annualized revenue and retail share allocations, faces headwinds from missed user/revenue targets and massive compute commitments, pushing its timeline to late 2026 or beyond per WSJ reporting. Realistic risks include SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or unforeseen FAA regulatory hurdles for SpaceX's Starship program, though OpenAI acceleration remains a low-probability wildcard.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日SpaceX
$73,263 Vol.
$73,263 Vol.
2027/12/31
SpaceX
$73,263 Vol.
$73,263 Vol.
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX IPOing first, with 98% implied probability reflecting its advanced preparations versus OpenAI's stalled momentum. SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 registration in early April 2026, accelerating toward a late-June Nasdaq debut at a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation, complete with analyst briefings, accelerated employee share vesting, and a roadshow starting June 8—potentially the largest IPO ever. OpenAI, despite $25 billion annualized revenue and retail share allocations, faces headwinds from missed user/revenue targets and massive compute commitments, pushing its timeline to late 2026 or beyond per WSJ reporting. Realistic risks include SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or unforeseen FAA regulatory hurdles for SpaceX's Starship program, though OpenAI acceleration remains a low-probability wildcard.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
音量
$73,263終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX IPOing first, with 98% implied probability reflecting its advanced preparations versus OpenAI's stalled momentum. SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 registration in early April 2026, accelerating toward a late-June Nasdaq debut at a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation, complete with analyst briefings, accelerated employee share vesting, and a roadshow starting June 8—potentially the largest IPO ever. OpenAI, despite $25 billion annualized revenue and retail share allocations, faces headwinds from missed user/revenue targets and massive compute commitments, pushing its timeline to late 2026 or beyond per WSJ reporting. Realistic risks include SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or unforeseen FAA regulatory hurdles for SpaceX's Starship program, though OpenAI acceleration remains a low-probability wildcard.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$73,263終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX IPOing first, with 98% implied probability reflecting its advanced preparations versus OpenAI's stalled momentum. SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 registration in early April 2026, accelerating toward a late-June Nasdaq debut at a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation, complete with analyst briefings, accelerated employee share vesting, and a roadshow starting June 8—potentially the largest IPO ever. OpenAI, despite $25 billion annualized revenue and retail share allocations, faces headwinds from missed user/revenue targets and massive compute commitments, pushing its timeline to late 2026 or beyond per WSJ reporting. Realistic risks include SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or unforeseen FAA regulatory hurdles for SpaceX's Starship program, though OpenAI acceleration remains a low-probability wildcard.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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