**Negotiations between the United States and Iran, launched after the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, collapsed without producing a final accord.** The 60-day window for technical talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional de-escalation expired in mid-August amid mutual accusations of violations, resumed shipping disruptions, and renewed U.S. strikes. Iranian officials have signaled they are not prepared to restart formal talks, while U.S. statements emphasize enforcement of sanctions and threats of further pressure rather than new diplomatic initiatives. **A UN Security Council resolution endorsing any comprehensive deal would require agreement among the P5 members on lifting prior sanctions regimes and verifying nuclear commitments, a process that has not advanced.** Ongoing hostilities linked to Lebanon, ballistic missile issues, and enrichment disputes have further eroded momentum. With no scheduled high-level meetings and both sides prioritizing leverage over compromise as of late August 2026, traders assess a binding UNSC endorsement by year-end as improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$175,690 Vol.
$175,690 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
14% 確率
$175,690 Vol.
$175,690 Vol.
2026/12/30
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Negotiations between the United States and Iran, launched after the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, collapsed without producing a final accord.** The 60-day window for technical talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional de-escalation expired in mid-August amid mutual accusations of violations, resumed shipping disruptions, and renewed U.S. strikes. Iranian officials have signaled they are not prepared to restart formal talks, while U.S. statements emphasize enforcement of sanctions and threats of further pressure rather than new diplomatic initiatives.
**A UN Security Council resolution endorsing any comprehensive deal would require agreement among the P5 members on lifting prior sanctions regimes and verifying nuclear commitments, a process that has not advanced.** Ongoing hostilities linked to Lebanon, ballistic missile issues, and enrichment disputes have further eroded momentum. With no scheduled high-level meetings and both sides prioritizing leverage over compromise as of late August 2026, traders assess a binding UNSC endorsement by year-end as improbable.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
音量
$175,690終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Negotiations between the United States and Iran, launched after the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, collapsed without producing a final accord.** The 60-day window for technical talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional de-escalation expired in mid-August amid mutual accusations of violations, resumed shipping disruptions, and renewed U.S. strikes. Iranian officials have signaled they are not prepared to restart formal talks, while U.S. statements emphasize enforcement of sanctions and threats of further pressure rather than new diplomatic initiatives.
**A UN Security Council resolution endorsing any comprehensive deal would require agreement among the P5 members on lifting prior sanctions regimes and verifying nuclear commitments, a process that has not advanced.** Ongoing hostilities linked to Lebanon, ballistic missile issues, and enrichment disputes have further eroded momentum. With no scheduled high-level meetings and both sides prioritizing leverage over compromise as of late August 2026, traders assess a binding UNSC endorsement by year-end as improbable.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$175,690終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Negotiations between the United States and Iran, launched after the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, collapsed without producing a final accord.** The 60-day window for technical talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional de-escalation expired in mid-August amid mutual accusations of violations, resumed shipping disruptions, and renewed U.S. strikes. Iranian officials have signaled they are not prepared to restart formal talks, while U.S. statements emphasize enforcement of sanctions and threats of further pressure rather than new diplomatic initiatives. **A UN Security Council resolution endorsing any comprehensive deal would require agreement among the P5 members on lifting prior sanctions regimes and verifying nuclear commitments, a process that has not advanced.** Ongoing hostilities linked to Lebanon, ballistic missile issues, and enrichment disputes have further eroded momentum. With no scheduled high-level meetings and both sides prioritizing leverage over compromise as of late August 2026, traders assess a binding UNSC endorsement by year-end as improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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