Ongoing hostilities and the rapid unraveling of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have left U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations at a low point, with no official talks or State Department steps toward restoring full ties by year-end. A brief ceasefire and memorandum covering sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues collapsed amid mutual accusations of noncompliance, resuming tensions that trace back to the 1979 embassy seizure. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for outreach. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced normalization process or legislative action that would enable embassy reopening within the remaining months of 2026. Late breakthroughs in mediated talks or unexpected executive agreements remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$158,284 Vol.
$158,284 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$158,284 Vol.
$158,284 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities and the rapid unraveling of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have left U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations at a low point, with no official talks or State Department steps toward restoring full ties by year-end. A brief ceasefire and memorandum covering sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues collapsed amid mutual accusations of noncompliance, resuming tensions that trace back to the 1979 embassy seizure. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for outreach. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced normalization process or legislative action that would enable embassy reopening within the remaining months of 2026. Late breakthroughs in mediated talks or unexpected executive agreements remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
音量
$158,284終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities and the rapid unraveling of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have left U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations at a low point, with no official talks or State Department steps toward restoring full ties by year-end. A brief ceasefire and memorandum covering sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues collapsed amid mutual accusations of noncompliance, resuming tensions that trace back to the 1979 embassy seizure. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for outreach. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced normalization process or legislative action that would enable embassy reopening within the remaining months of 2026. Late breakthroughs in mediated talks or unexpected executive agreements remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$158,284終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities and the rapid unraveling of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have left U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations at a low point, with no official talks or State Department steps toward restoring full ties by year-end. A brief ceasefire and memorandum covering sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues collapsed amid mutual accusations of noncompliance, resuming tensions that trace back to the 1979 embassy seizure. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for outreach. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced normalization process or legislative action that would enable embassy reopening within the remaining months of 2026. Late breakthroughs in mediated talks or unexpected executive agreements remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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