Persistent hostilities from the 2026 Iran conflict, including US-Iran military exchanges that began in late February and a fragile ceasefire now under strain, continue to block any path to embassy reopening this year. President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s recent counterproposal, which omitted nuclear concessions, has prompted fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China in early May, reinforcing maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. Indirect talks through Swiss and Pakistani channels remain focused on de-escalation and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration, consistent with the absence of formal relations since 1979. These developments sustain trader consensus that an embassy reopening by year-end remains structurally improbable absent a comprehensive breakthrough.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$80,059 Vol.
$80,059 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$80,059 Vol.
$80,059 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent hostilities from the 2026 Iran conflict, including US-Iran military exchanges that began in late February and a fragile ceasefire now under strain, continue to block any path to embassy reopening this year. President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s recent counterproposal, which omitted nuclear concessions, has prompted fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China in early May, reinforcing maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. Indirect talks through Swiss and Pakistani channels remain focused on de-escalation and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration, consistent with the absence of formal relations since 1979. These developments sustain trader consensus that an embassy reopening by year-end remains structurally improbable absent a comprehensive breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
音量
$80,059終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent hostilities from the 2026 Iran conflict, including US-Iran military exchanges that began in late February and a fragile ceasefire now under strain, continue to block any path to embassy reopening this year. President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s recent counterproposal, which omitted nuclear concessions, has prompted fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China in early May, reinforcing maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. Indirect talks through Swiss and Pakistani channels remain focused on de-escalation and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration, consistent with the absence of formal relations since 1979. These developments sustain trader consensus that an embassy reopening by year-end remains structurally improbable absent a comprehensive breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$80,059終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent hostilities from the 2026 Iran conflict, including US-Iran military exchanges that began in late February and a fragile ceasefire now under strain, continue to block any path to embassy reopening this year. President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s recent counterproposal, which omitted nuclear concessions, has prompted fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China in early May, reinforcing maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. Indirect talks through Swiss and Pakistani channels remain focused on de-escalation and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration, consistent with the absence of formal relations since 1979. These developments sustain trader consensus that an embassy reopening by year-end remains structurally improbable absent a comprehensive breakthrough.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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