**The absence of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since 1979, compounded by renewed military conflict earlier in 2026 and persistent sanctions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in Iran this year.** A June memorandum of understanding between the Trump administration and Iranian officials established a 60-day framework for talks on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation, prompting some Western missions to resume operations in Tehran. However, those talks stalled amid resumed US sanctions actions, Iranian preconditions, and ongoing regional tensions, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 travel advisory and confirming no physical US presence as of September. Switzerland continues to serve as the protecting power. Full embassy reopening would require a comprehensive normalization agreement resolving core disputes within the remaining months of 2026—a threshold few observers view as attainable given the current diplomatic impasse and security environment. Late breakthroughs in nuclear verification or sanctions waivers remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$159,455 Vol.
$159,455 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$159,455 Vol.
$159,455 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The absence of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since 1979, compounded by renewed military conflict earlier in 2026 and persistent sanctions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in Iran this year.** A June memorandum of understanding between the Trump administration and Iranian officials established a 60-day framework for talks on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation, prompting some Western missions to resume operations in Tehran. However, those talks stalled amid resumed US sanctions actions, Iranian preconditions, and ongoing regional tensions, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 travel advisory and confirming no physical US presence as of September. Switzerland continues to serve as the protecting power. Full embassy reopening would require a comprehensive normalization agreement resolving core disputes within the remaining months of 2026—a threshold few observers view as attainable given the current diplomatic impasse and security environment. Late breakthroughs in nuclear verification or sanctions waivers remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
音量
$159,455終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The absence of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since 1979, compounded by renewed military conflict earlier in 2026 and persistent sanctions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in Iran this year.** A June memorandum of understanding between the Trump administration and Iranian officials established a 60-day framework for talks on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation, prompting some Western missions to resume operations in Tehran. However, those talks stalled amid resumed US sanctions actions, Iranian preconditions, and ongoing regional tensions, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 travel advisory and confirming no physical US presence as of September. Switzerland continues to serve as the protecting power. Full embassy reopening would require a comprehensive normalization agreement resolving core disputes within the remaining months of 2026—a threshold few observers view as attainable given the current diplomatic impasse and security environment. Late breakthroughs in nuclear verification or sanctions waivers remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$159,455終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**The absence of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since 1979, compounded by renewed military conflict earlier in 2026 and persistent sanctions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in Iran this year.** A June memorandum of understanding between the Trump administration and Iranian officials established a 60-day framework for talks on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation, prompting some Western missions to resume operations in Tehran. However, those talks stalled amid resumed US sanctions actions, Iranian preconditions, and ongoing regional tensions, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 travel advisory and confirming no physical US presence as of September. Switzerland continues to serve as the protecting power. Full embassy reopening would require a comprehensive normalization agreement resolving core disputes within the remaining months of 2026—a threshold few observers view as attainable given the current diplomatic impasse and security environment. Late breakthroughs in nuclear verification or sanctions waivers remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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