The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$62,328 Vol.
$62,328 Vol.
2029/01/20
はい
$62,328 Vol.
$62,328 Vol.
2029/01/20
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$62,328終了日
2029/01/20マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
音量
$62,328終了日
2029/01/20マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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