Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House race favors Republicans at 72.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by a recent state Supreme Court ruling and ongoing redistricting litigation that shifted the district from a Harris+8 lean to a Trump+14 stronghold under the new map upheld for 2026. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, elected in 2024 under the prior court-ordered boundaries creating a second Black opportunity district, now faces steep structural headwinds in this redrawn battleground. Gov. Kay Ivey's May 13 announcement of special primaries on August 11 for AL-02 and three other districts—without runoffs—accelerates nominee selection amid the map change, solidifying Republican path-to-victory via incumbency disadvantage and partisan lean. General election looms November 3, with no recent head-to-head polls but historical base rates favoring the GOP in R+14 seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$28,401 거래량
$28,401 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
73%
Democratic Party
26%
$28,401 거래량
$28,401 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$15,583 거래량
73%
Democratic Party
$12,818 거래량
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House race favors Republicans at 72.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by a recent state Supreme Court ruling and ongoing redistricting litigation that shifted the district from a Harris+8 lean to a Trump+14 stronghold under the new map upheld for 2026. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, elected in 2024 under the prior court-ordered boundaries creating a second Black opportunity district, now faces steep structural headwinds in this redrawn battleground. Gov. Kay Ivey's May 13 announcement of special primaries on August 11 for AL-02 and three other districts—without runoffs—accelerates nominee selection amid the map change, solidifying Republican path-to-victory via incumbency disadvantage and partisan lean. General election looms November 3, with no recent head-to-head polls but historical base rates favoring the GOP in R+14 seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$28,401종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House race favors Republicans at 72.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by a recent state Supreme Court ruling and ongoing redistricting litigation that shifted the district from a Harris+8 lean to a Trump+14 stronghold under the new map upheld for 2026. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, elected in 2024 under the prior court-ordered boundaries creating a second Black opportunity district, now faces steep structural headwinds in this redrawn battleground. Gov. Kay Ivey's May 13 announcement of special primaries on August 11 for AL-02 and three other districts—without runoffs—accelerates nominee selection amid the map change, solidifying Republican path-to-victory via incumbency disadvantage and partisan lean. General election looms November 3, with no recent head-to-head polls but historical base rates favoring the GOP in R+14 seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$28,401종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House race favors Republicans at 72.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by a recent state Supreme Court ruling and ongoing redistricting litigation that shifted the district from a Harris+8 lean to a Trump+14 stronghold under the new map upheld for 2026. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, elected in 2024 under the prior court-ordered boundaries creating a second Black opportunity district, now faces steep structural headwinds in this redrawn battleground. Gov. Kay Ivey's May 13 announcement of special primaries on August 11 for AL-02 and three other districts—without runoffs—accelerates nominee selection amid the map change, solidifying Republican path-to-victory via incumbency disadvantage and partisan lean. General election looms November 3, with no recent head-to-head polls but historical base rates favoring the GOP in R+14 seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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