Georgia's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a history of general-election margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Hank Johnson, seeking an 11th term, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote and is expected to advance to November, where the party's nominee holds structural advantages in voter registration, past turnout patterns, and district boundaries. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.3% implied probability because no recent polling, candidate events, or demographic shifts have altered the seat's baseline partisan tilt. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the outcome, though these remain low-probability events given the district's established voting record.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$27,830 거래량
$27,830 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
5%
$27,830 거래량
$27,830 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$17,074 거래량
95%
공화당
$10,757 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Georgia's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a history of general-election margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Hank Johnson, seeking an 11th term, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote and is expected to advance to November, where the party's nominee holds structural advantages in voter registration, past turnout patterns, and district boundaries. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.3% implied probability because no recent polling, candidate events, or demographic shifts have altered the seat's baseline partisan tilt. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the outcome, though these remain low-probability events given the district's established voting record.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$27,830종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Georgia's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a history of general-election margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Hank Johnson, seeking an 11th term, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote and is expected to advance to November, where the party's nominee holds structural advantages in voter registration, past turnout patterns, and district boundaries. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.3% implied probability because no recent polling, candidate events, or demographic shifts have altered the seat's baseline partisan tilt. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the outcome, though these remain low-probability events given the district's established voting record.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$27,830종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Georgia's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a history of general-election margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Hank Johnson, seeking an 11th term, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote and is expected to advance to November, where the party's nominee holds structural advantages in voter registration, past turnout patterns, and district boundaries. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.3% implied probability because no recent polling, candidate events, or demographic shifts have altered the seat's baseline partisan tilt. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the outcome, though these remain low-probability events given the district's established voting record.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문