Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain Georgia's 5th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, driven by the seat's D+36 partisan voter index and her dominant historical margins—85.7% in 2024 against the same Republican foe, John Salvesen, who faces no primary opposition on May 19. Williams leads her lightly contested Democratic primary against Arnetress Beatty, backed by superior fundraising ($478,000 raised vs. $7,000 as of late April), reinforcing district fundamentals in urban Atlanta with heavy Democratic turnout from Black voters and progressives. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via a surprise primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, a personal scandal for Williams, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though such barriers remain steep given consistent 80%+ Democratic victories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$24,994 거래량
$24,994 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
3%
$24,994 거래량
$24,994 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$3,074 거래량
94%
공화당
$21,921 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain Georgia's 5th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, driven by the seat's D+36 partisan voter index and her dominant historical margins—85.7% in 2024 against the same Republican foe, John Salvesen, who faces no primary opposition on May 19. Williams leads her lightly contested Democratic primary against Arnetress Beatty, backed by superior fundraising ($478,000 raised vs. $7,000 as of late April), reinforcing district fundamentals in urban Atlanta with heavy Democratic turnout from Black voters and progressives. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via a surprise primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, a personal scandal for Williams, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though such barriers remain steep given consistent 80%+ Democratic victories.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$24,994종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain Georgia's 5th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, driven by the seat's D+36 partisan voter index and her dominant historical margins—85.7% in 2024 against the same Republican foe, John Salvesen, who faces no primary opposition on May 19. Williams leads her lightly contested Democratic primary against Arnetress Beatty, backed by superior fundraising ($478,000 raised vs. $7,000 as of late April), reinforcing district fundamentals in urban Atlanta with heavy Democratic turnout from Black voters and progressives. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via a surprise primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, a personal scandal for Williams, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though such barriers remain steep given consistent 80%+ Democratic victories.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$24,994종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain Georgia's 5th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, driven by the seat's D+36 partisan voter index and her dominant historical margins—85.7% in 2024 against the same Republican foe, John Salvesen, who faces no primary opposition on May 19. Williams leads her lightly contested Democratic primary against Arnetress Beatty, backed by superior fundraising ($478,000 raised vs. $7,000 as of late April), reinforcing district fundamentals in urban Atlanta with heavy Democratic turnout from Black voters and progressives. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via a surprise primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, a personal scandal for Williams, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though such barriers remain steep given consistent 80%+ Democratic victories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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