Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 5?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 5?
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 6%
신규
신규
2026.07.05
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
21%
29°C
36%
30°C
22%
31°C
6%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 6%
신규
신규
2026.07.05
24°C or below
$52 거래량
<1%
25°C
$394 거래량
1%
26°C
$422 거래량
1%
27°C
$262 거래량
4%
28°C
$177 거래량
21%
29°C
$1,028 거래량
36%
30°C
$3,034 거래량
22%
31°C
$201 거래량
6%
32°C
$311 거래량
4%
33°C
$369 거래량
1%
34°C or higher
$61 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
거래량
$6,296종료일
2026.07.05마켓 개설일
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$6,296종료일
2026.07.05마켓 개설일
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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