Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data have solidified trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, with market-implied odds now at 71% for no easing. The April 2026 CPI print rose 3.8% year over year—the highest since May 2023—driven by elevated energy prices following Middle East developments, while core measures remained above the 2% target. Resilient labor-market conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts from major brokerages have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and upcoming inflation and employment releases will be the key swing factors in the coming months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 (0bp) 71.0%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.7%
$26,864,581 거래량
$26,864,581 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
71%
1회 (25bp)
16%
2회 (50bp)
7%
3회 (75bp)
3%
4회 (100bp)
2%
5회 (125bp)
1%
6회 (150bp)
1%
7회 (175bp)
<1%
8회 (200bp)
<1%
9회 (225bp)
<1%
10회 (250bp)
<1%
11회 (275bp)
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
1%
0 (0bp) 71.0%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.7%
$26,864,581 거래량
$26,864,581 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
$4,184,871 거래량
71%
1회 (25bp)
$1,244,245 거래량
16%
2회 (50bp)
$1,203,687 거래량
7%
3회 (75bp)
$1,113,699 거래량
3%
4회 (100bp)
$1,194,248 거래량
2%
5회 (125bp)
$1,415,167 거래량
1%
6회 (150bp)
$2,483,676 거래량
1%
7회 (175bp)
$1,322,077 거래량
<1%
8회 (200bp)
$1,726,106 거래량
<1%
9회 (225bp)
$2,449,310 거래량
<1%
10회 (250bp)
$3,115,555 거래량
<1%
11회 (275bp)
$3,262,990 거래량
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
$2,149,097 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data have solidified trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, with market-implied odds now at 71% for no easing. The April 2026 CPI print rose 3.8% year over year—the highest since May 2023—driven by elevated energy prices following Middle East developments, while core measures remained above the 2% target. Resilient labor-market conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts from major brokerages have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and upcoming inflation and employment releases will be the key swing factors in the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
마켓 개설일: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$26,864,581종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data have solidified trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, with market-implied odds now at 71% for no easing. The April 2026 CPI print rose 3.8% year over year—the highest since May 2023—driven by elevated energy prices following Middle East developments, while core measures remained above the 2% target. Resilient labor-market conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts from major brokerages have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and upcoming inflation and employment releases will be the key swing factors in the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$26,864,581종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data have solidified trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, with market-implied odds now at 71% for no easing. The April 2026 CPI print rose 3.8% year over year—the highest since May 2023—driven by elevated energy prices following Middle East developments, while core measures remained above the 2% target. Resilient labor-market conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts from major brokerages have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and upcoming inflation and employment releases will be the key swing factors in the coming months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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