The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$46,392 거래량
$46,392 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
96%
공화당
4%
$46,392 거래량
$46,392 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$31,938 거래량
96%
공화당
$14,454 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$46,392종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$46,392종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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