Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District continues to favor Democratic outcomes due to its established partisan lean and voter demographics centered around New Orleans. Incumbent Troy Carter holds a substantial advantage in the Democratic primary against minor opposition, while the Republican primary was canceled after no candidates filed ahead of the May 2026 date suspended by redistricting litigation. This absence of a general-election Republican challenger reinforces the current trader consensus of an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party and just 7.1% for the Republican Party heading into the November 2026 contest. Ongoing state-level map adjustments and Supreme Court review of Louisiana's congressional boundaries have not shifted these structural dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$41,772 거래량
$41,772 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
88%
공화당
6%
$41,772 거래량
$41,772 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$21,915 거래량
88%
공화당
$19,857 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District continues to favor Democratic outcomes due to its established partisan lean and voter demographics centered around New Orleans. Incumbent Troy Carter holds a substantial advantage in the Democratic primary against minor opposition, while the Republican primary was canceled after no candidates filed ahead of the May 2026 date suspended by redistricting litigation. This absence of a general-election Republican challenger reinforces the current trader consensus of an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party and just 7.1% for the Republican Party heading into the November 2026 contest. Ongoing state-level map adjustments and Supreme Court review of Louisiana's congressional boundaries have not shifted these structural dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$41,772종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District continues to favor Democratic outcomes due to its established partisan lean and voter demographics centered around New Orleans. Incumbent Troy Carter holds a substantial advantage in the Democratic primary against minor opposition, while the Republican primary was canceled after no candidates filed ahead of the May 2026 date suspended by redistricting litigation. This absence of a general-election Republican challenger reinforces the current trader consensus of an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party and just 7.1% for the Republican Party heading into the November 2026 contest. Ongoing state-level map adjustments and Supreme Court review of Louisiana's congressional boundaries have not shifted these structural dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$41,772종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District continues to favor Democratic outcomes due to its established partisan lean and voter demographics centered around New Orleans. Incumbent Troy Carter holds a substantial advantage in the Democratic primary against minor opposition, while the Republican primary was canceled after no candidates filed ahead of the May 2026 date suspended by redistricting litigation. This absence of a general-election Republican challenger reinforces the current trader consensus of an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party and just 7.1% for the Republican Party heading into the November 2026 contest. Ongoing state-level map adjustments and Supreme Court review of Louisiana's congressional boundaries have not shifted these structural dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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