**Trader sentiment for Seoul’s July 13 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 25–26 °C because short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models place overnight lows near the upper end of typical early-July climatology (roughly 22–26 °C) amid a weakening East Asian monsoon.** Persistent high humidity and residual cloud cover from the Jangma front limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated and producing “tropical night” conditions (lowest temperature ≥ 25 °C) in recent days. Model consensus currently favors a minimum near 25–26 °C, with small differences driven by expected variations in low-level wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any clearing skies on the night of July 12–13. A slightly stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness would favor the 26 °C bucket, while marginally clearer conditions or a brief cool-air intrusion could push the reading to 25 °C or lower. Because resolution hinges on the official KMA station reading (lowest temperature between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m.), even modest forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours can shift probabilities between these two closely matched outcomes.