Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$30,403 거래량
$30,403 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
94%
민주당
7%
$30,403 거래량
$30,403 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$16,483 거래량
94%
민주당
$13,920 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$30,403종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$30,403종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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