Recent UK local election results have triggered sharp declines in Labour support and growing internal calls for Keir Starmer’s resignation, establishing the prime minister as the leading outcome at 44.5 percent in trader assessments of an exit before 2027. Colombia’s constitutional term limit places President Gustavo Petro’s departure in August 2026, supporting his 34.5 percent share as the scheduled transition approaches amid ongoing legislative and security challenges. Lower probabilities for figures such as Díaz-Canel, Takaichi, and Sheinbaum reflect fewer immediate catalysts, with no major votes, scandals, or institutional deadlines shifting consensus in the past month. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these prices highlights how electoral setbacks and fixed constitutional timelines continue to shape near-term removal odds over longer-term stability factors.