The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey’s 1st congressional district, reflected in its consistent partisan voting history and incumbent Donald Norcross’s 2024 general-election margin, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the 2026 House race. Norcross faces only a low-profile primary challenge on June 2, while the Republican nominee, Damon Galdo, operates in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. With no major recent shifts in polling, endorsements, or local developments to alter the baseline, traders price in a wide path to victory through November. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a national Republican wave exceeding historical norms, or unusually low Democratic turnout that narrows the margin below recent precedents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,637 거래량
$17,637 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$17,637 거래량
$17,637 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$13,210 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$4,427 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey’s 1st congressional district, reflected in its consistent partisan voting history and incumbent Donald Norcross’s 2024 general-election margin, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the 2026 House race. Norcross faces only a low-profile primary challenge on June 2, while the Republican nominee, Damon Galdo, operates in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. With no major recent shifts in polling, endorsements, or local developments to alter the baseline, traders price in a wide path to victory through November. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a national Republican wave exceeding historical norms, or unusually low Democratic turnout that narrows the margin below recent precedents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$17,637종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey’s 1st congressional district, reflected in its consistent partisan voting history and incumbent Donald Norcross’s 2024 general-election margin, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the 2026 House race. Norcross faces only a low-profile primary challenge on June 2, while the Republican nominee, Damon Galdo, operates in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. With no major recent shifts in polling, endorsements, or local developments to alter the baseline, traders price in a wide path to victory through November. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a national Republican wave exceeding historical norms, or unusually low Democratic turnout that narrows the margin below recent precedents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,637종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey’s 1st congressional district, reflected in its consistent partisan voting history and incumbent Donald Norcross’s 2024 general-election margin, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the 2026 House race. Norcross faces only a low-profile primary challenge on June 2, while the Republican nominee, Damon Galdo, operates in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. With no major recent shifts in polling, endorsements, or local developments to alter the baseline, traders price in a wide path to victory through November. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a national Republican wave exceeding historical norms, or unusually low Democratic turnout that narrows the margin below recent precedents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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