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icon for 2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?
정치·미국 선거

2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?

icon for 2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?
정치·미국 선거

2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?

190석 미만 27%

195-199 12%

200-204 11.5%

215-219 11.1%

Polymarket

$234,839 거래량

190석 미만 27%

195-199 12%

200-204 11.5%

215-219 11.1%

Polymarket

$234,839 거래량

190석 미만

$17,616 거래량

27%

190-194

$8,513 거래량

11%

195-199

$28,129 거래량

12%

200-204

$22,115 거래량

12%

205-209

$35,376 거래량

10%

210-214

$12,841 거래량

9%

215-219

$8,059 거래량

11%

220-224

$53,714 거래량

9%

225-229

$21,391 거래량

3%

230석 이상

$27,084 거래량

2%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Early polling shows Democrats holding a consistent generic ballot advantage of around six points, aligning with the typical midterm pattern where the president's party faces net losses in the House. With 36 Republican incumbents retiring compared to 20 Democrats, and battleground districts split nearly evenly, analysts note that Democrats need only modest gains to flip control. Recent redistricting shifts in states like Virginia and Missouri have produced mixed map adjustments, while Supreme Court rulings on voting rules offer Republicans some potential offsets in Southern districts. These factors, alongside strong Democratic fundraising trends, underpin the current trader consensus around lower Republican seat totals heading into November 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$234,839
종료일
2026.11.03
마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Early polling shows Democrats holding a consistent generic ballot advantage of around six points, aligning with the typical midterm pattern where the president's party faces net losses in the House. With 36 Republican incumbents retiring compared to 20 Democrats, and battleground districts split nearly evenly, analysts note that Democrats need only modest gains to flip control. Recent redistricting shifts in states like Virginia and Missouri have produced mixed map adjustments, while Supreme Court rulings on voting rules offer Republicans some potential offsets in Southern districts. These factors, alongside strong Democratic fundraising trends, underpin the current trader consensus around lower Republican seat totals heading into November 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$234,839
종료일
2026.11.03
마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?"은 10개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 27%의 "190석 미만"이며, 이어서 12%의 "195-199"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 27¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 27%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?"은 총 $234.8K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Dec 19, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 10개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?"의 현재 유력 후보는 27%의 "190석 미만"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 27%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 12%의 "195-199"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년 중간선거 이후 공화당 하원의석?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.