Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,985 거래량
$20,985 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
7%
5,000억~6,000억
6%
6,000억~7,000억
5%
7,000억~8,000억
8%
8,000억~9,000억
44%
9,000억~1조
36%
1조–1.1조
9%
1.1조+
5%
$20,985 거래량
$20,985 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
$16,637 거래량
7%
5,000억~6,000억
$413 거래량
6%
6,000억~7,000억
$435 거래량
5%
7,000억~8,000억
$456 거래량
8%
8,000억~9,000억
$1,008 거래량
44%
9,000억~1조
$971 거래량
36%
1조–1.1조
$441 거래량
9%
1.1조+
$624 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$20,985종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
거래량
$20,985종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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